3 ms·

Turns out we just needed stronger magnetic fields: https://cfs.energy/ https://cfs.energy/ Materials science delivered an order of magnitude more powerful magn

Turns out we just needed stronger magnetic fields: https://cfs.energy/ https://cfs.energy/ Materials science delivered an order of magnitude more powerful magnetic field in the form of better superconducting ribbons. Add in molten salt blanket for neutron recovery and heat working fluid, design for maintenance: and voìla! You have a garage sized fusion reactor which outputs net energy.

ncmncm 6y ago
Imagine you have installed one of these things in your garage, or maybe better 10 or 20 ft below, to keep from sterilizing your offspring. You got it for a fire-sale bargain at only $50M, even including the turbine and cooling tower. It produces, what, 100kW? (Plus 100kW of waste heat you might be able find a use for.) Or is that too optimistic? How many MW of solar panels can you buy for that $50M? Let's even figure in plenty of battery backup. (Hint: lots.) How many MW of wind turbines? (Hint: lots.) Where would such a garage-sized fusion reactor be useful? And how long before it is a radioactive slag heap? (It was good planning to bury it up-front.) How many GW-years does the fleet need to produce before it pays off the tens of $billions already sunk, to date? The only guaranteed product of all nuclear power schemes is monstrous exaggeration of cost effectiveness. "Outputs net energy" is very, very far short of useful.
- wahern 6y ago
  You seem to be comparing construction costs of an experimental project to the LCOE (basically, utility rates) for a massively scaled and mature industry. Let's ignore the R&D costs it took us to get solar to its current state. According to https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36813 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36813, the construction costs in 2016 for utility-scale solar plants were ~$2.5k per kilowatt, or ~$2.5M per megawatt. > How many MW of solar panels can you buy for that $50M? About 20MW. Definitely not 1000GW, which is what you would get by dividing $50, today's approx. solar power MWh LCOE, into $50M. From the tone of your reply it seems like you were assuming the latter. Ignoring large jumps in the price of land, and ignoring potential taxes for their environmental impact (deserts and plains have ecosystems, too), solar and wind will likely be cheaper than fusion far into the future, even by optimistic fusion predictions. But it's still debatable whether it'll be so expensive that we shouldn't even bother making the investment. The LCOE of natural gas is 3x that of solar power today, and yet we're still building natural gas plants like crazy. (FWIW, the LCOE for new fission plants as expensive as Vogtle Units 3 & 4, the former coming online next year, is comparable to natural gas. https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-o... In China the LCOE seems to be closer to that of contemporary solar LCOEs. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/6/2086/pdf https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/6/2086/pdf Which explains why China has many more reactors under construction.)
  - ncmncm 6y ago
    I will only note that 20 megawatts is always "lots" more than 100 kilowatts. Even 10MW is. And if you think you will be able to buy a garage-sized fusion reactor for $50M in our grandchildrens' lifetime... good luck. One might be useful onboard a spacecraft, at the end of a long, long tether. But a pB reactor would still be a better choice. China is also building new coal plants. The actions of a command economy are not a sound indicator of relative cost and value.

ncmncm 6y ago

Imagine you have installed one of these things in your garage, or maybe better 10 or 20 ft below, to keep from sterilizing your offspring. You got it for a fire-sale bargain at only $50M, even including the turbine and cooling tower. It produces, what, 100kW? (Plus 100kW of waste heat you might be able find a use for.) Or is that too optimistic? How many MW of solar panels can you buy for that $50M? Let's even figure in plenty of battery backup. (Hint: lots.) How many MW of wind turbines? (Hint: lots.) Where would such a garage-sized fusion reactor be useful? And how long before it is a radioactive slag heap? (It was good planning to bury it up-front.) How many GW-years does the fleet need to produce before it pays off the tens of $billions already sunk, to date? The only guaranteed product of all nuclear power schemes is monstrous exaggeration of cost effectiveness. "Outputs net energy" is very, very far short of useful.

wahern 6y ago
You seem to be comparing construction costs of an experimental project to the LCOE (basically, utility rates) for a massively scaled and mature industry. Let's ignore the R&D costs it took us to get solar to its current state. According to https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36813 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36813, the construction costs in 2016 for utility-scale solar plants were ~$2.5k per kilowatt, or ~$2.5M per megawatt. > How many MW of solar panels can you buy for that $50M? About 20MW. Definitely not 1000GW, which is what you would get by dividing $50, today's approx. solar power MWh LCOE, into $50M. From the tone of your reply it seems like you were assuming the latter. Ignoring large jumps in the price of land, and ignoring potential taxes for their environmental impact (deserts and plains have ecosystems, too), solar and wind will likely be cheaper than fusion far into the future, even by optimistic fusion predictions. But it's still debatable whether it'll be so expensive that we shouldn't even bother making the investment. The LCOE of natural gas is 3x that of solar power today, and yet we're still building natural gas plants like crazy. (FWIW, the LCOE for new fission plants as expensive as Vogtle Units 3 & 4, the former coming online next year, is comparable to natural gas. https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-o... In China the LCOE seems to be closer to that of contemporary solar LCOEs. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/6/2086/pdf https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/6/2086/pdf Which explains why China has many more reactors under construction.)
- ncmncm 6y ago
  I will only note that 20 megawatts is always "lots" more than 100 kilowatts. Even 10MW is. And if you think you will be able to buy a garage-sized fusion reactor for $50M in our grandchildrens' lifetime... good luck. One might be useful onboard a spacecraft, at the end of a long, long tether. But a pB reactor would still be a better choice. China is also building new coal plants. The actions of a command economy are not a sound indicator of relative cost and value.