I think if you see 90% with 80% confidence interval, you can intuit that he isn't counting uncertainty in the tails. Consider, Would you be comfortable making

I think if you see 90% with 80% confidence interval, you can intuit that he isn't counting uncertainty in the tails. Consider, Would you be comfortable making a bet with someone, on a 90/10 payoff? This, I think is Taleb's central point. Silver's algorithm is not counting the uncertainty correctly.