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> If I am expected to make a better prediction of the election outcome by averaging your last 10 predictions than by taking your current prediction, then your
by throwawaygh 6y ago
> If I am expected to make a better prediction of the election outcome by averaging your last 10 predictions than by taking your current prediction, then your current prediction is suboptimal.
That's not how poll averaging works. Or, at least, that's not how poll averaging works in the 538 model.
- bitdizzy 6y agoThat's not what the OP was saying. The argument is if somebody can take Silver's model's predictions over time and produce a better next estimate than it, then Silver's model is incoherent about its own beliefs.