I think what many people miss, and what Silver isn't likely to admit, is that 538 is entertainment. If their prediction were 50% split up until the last month o

I think what many people miss, and what Silver isn't likely to admit, is that 538 is entertainment. If their prediction were 50% split up until the last month of the campaign it would be boring and nobody would check out his site. Higher variance is desirable to him, and he can justify the whole thing in his post mortems by only measuring last minute accuracy.