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You are indeed right. Look at Nate’s current prediction though: 89% that Biden will win. I highly doubt anyone would take betting odds of 89% Biden. This is a

• awb 6y ago
  Most betting markets are at 66%. That I believe is for who is sworn in in January. Silver's forecast is slightly different. It's for who will win if all votes are counted and no courts intervene. Given that Biden's lead in states exceeding 270 electoral votes is above the polling margin of error and even above an unexpected 2016 sized error, and that Trump would need a clean sweep of all 7 swing states, 90% isn't crazy considering Trump is an incumbent with a low 40% approval rating. The extra 23% the betting markets are giving Trump are probably because of the courts and some 2016 "anything could happen" bias. The Supreme Court is conservative as are some of the attorney generals in the swing states. In 2000 that proved decisive and is probably an easier path to victory for Trump than winning a clean vote. In 2016 Trump had a forecasted 30% chance to win. He lost the popular vote by 3M, but won 3 decisive swing states by a combined 80k votes. The betting markets assist to be giving him about the same 30% chance as 2016 even though the polling, approval rating, undecideds, etc. are all decidedly worse for him this time around.