To be perfectly honest, I think the Obama elections were a unique point in politics where models like Nate's worked a lot better. Realistically there weren't ma

To be perfectly honest, I think the Obama elections were a unique point in politics where models like Nate's worked a lot better. Realistically there weren't many up for grabs states, which means you could guess 8-12 states right and run the table. A lot has a evolved since then, especially in the social media landscape and the accelerated death of answering phones, which live polls rely so heavily on. Maybe Silver will hit this election out of the park, I don't know, but I would err on the side that he gets a number of states wrong.