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Well, that’s kind of on him to create, no? Put another way, if trump wins...again, do you take that as part of the expected outcomes or evidence your distribu
by thedudeabides5 6y ago
Well, that’s kind of on him to create, no?
Put another way, if trump wins...again, do you take that as part of the expected outcomes or evidence your distribution is wrong?
If he said something was a 10% likelihood, and it happened three times in a row, would you still think the prior is that the event was actually 10%, or that the estimate of a 10% likelihood was off?
- tempestn 6y agoThey do do that analysis, in some detail: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/
- thedudeabides5 6y agoPretty sure those are all based on sports or at least baseball. Question isn’t can silver predict baseball. We’ve know that since his time at baseball prospectus in 2007!
- aw1621107 6y ago> Pretty sure those are all based on sports or at least baseball. Both sports and political forecasts are included in the analysis, and are considered both separately and together (depending on the particular plot). There's a dropdown at the top of the page that lets you pick specific polls to look at.