The point of premise 2 is that an 80% probability in late June implies a very high level of confidence. Confidence that doesn't seem intuitively reasonable. I w

The point of premise 2 is that an 80% probability in late June implies a very high level of confidence. Confidence that doesn't seem intuitively reasonable. I would say that few rational individuals would have taken a bet with 4 pays 1 odds that Biden would win on July 1. It would not be a very safe bet, because of the likelihood of unknown random events. Therefore, what Nate's model was predicting in July probably wasn't the probability of Biden winning on November 3rd. That doesn't mean the model's not useful, but if it is trying to predict what you think it is, then it's overconfident. As a non-huge fan of Taleb, and as actually a big fan of Silver, I think Taleb is right here.