The problems with Silver's results is that it is from a "seat-of-the-pants" model. It is trying to do some form of data mining with the data, but there is littl

The problems with Silver's results is that it is from a "seat-of-the-pants" model. It is trying to do some form of data mining with the data, but there is little underlying foundations to guarantee that it is even close to reality. Regular polls are more transparent because they (at least the well done) will tell you the methodology and the statistical limitations of the research. You can't get that from what Silver is doing.