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Taleb is saying that if your rain model four months out shows 2%, 8%, 3%, 9%, then it should have instead shown 5-6% that entire range instead. If your final pr
by smallnamespace 6y ago
Taleb is saying that if your rain model four months out shows 2%, 8%, 3%, 9%, then it should have instead shown 5-6% that entire range instead. If your final prediction ends up at 90%, your path there should resemble a sort of random walk.
Put another way, the 538 model doesn’t add enough variance when we’re still months out. This shouldn’t be surprising, as Silver himself emphasizes that their primary metric is ‘last minute’ prediction accuracy.
- pochamago 6y agoI think what many people miss, and what Silver isn't likely to admit, is that 538 is entertainment. If their prediction were 50% split up until the last month of the campaign it would be boring and nobody would check out his site. Higher variance is desirable to him, and he can justify the whole thing in his post mortems by only measuring last minute accuracy.