4 ms·

For about 30 years cities were relatively undesirable places to live in for the average person. The cities that young people have flocked to in the last decade

For about 30 years cities were relatively undesirable places to live in for the average person. The cities that young people have flocked to in the last decade or so are designed and developed more like large scale open shopping malls than the cities of the 70s and 80s. The closest comparison to what's happening now was "White flight", a largely racist reaction to the civil rights movement involving increased protests and riots in cities. White flight changed many cities in the 50/60s, in particular Cleveland, Oakland and Detroit. These cities only started to see any kind of revival in the tail end of the last economic boom. For decades cities struggled with violent crime, racial tensions, poor infrastructure, etc. What we're seeing is a much larger scale than that and will likely change cities for decades to come. In the shopping mall era of cities you live in cities because you are close to work and close to restaurants, bars and other things to do. And cities feel remarkably safe. Nearly every tech person who "loves cities!" today would feel very uncomfortable in SF or NYC of the 1970s. Virtually every one I know in a major metro is considering leaving because: jobs no longer require being there, pandemic has destroyed much of the food and small business scene, and cities are becoming visibly less safe. The people are moving to other areas and they are very often looking to purchase a home rather than rent (since what you can get for the same mortgage as your current rent is typically an order of magnitude more space). This means they won't be coming back soon. This will cause a feedback loop that will continue to force employers to go remote, reduce the number of restaurants and leave cities more vacant and more dangerous. It means the city will also change very rapidly and be much less attractive, even at a lower price. But to your point about the Castro: it's precisely because "average" people didn't want to live in SF that marginalized groups found a home there. The Castro in SF, the Village in N YC were places that Engineers didn't want to work and live, so artists and outcasts moved in. My fear is that this collapse is going to be too extreme and too fast to allow for the creation of this interesting space of possibility that NYC and SF of the 1970-80s was. The collapse of commercial and residential real estate in these areas is going to have consequences that I think are very hard to predict right now.

whimsicalism 6y ago
I don't see how your comment is at odds with what you're replying to. > cities are becoming visibly less safe Hm, I do not think this is true.
- asdff 6y ago
  It's true in LA at least. Petty crime is unenforced and people are well aware of that fact. I've seen people smoking crack or shooting up in broad daylight plenty of times this year, sometimes in front of city workers who do not care. Seems like there is an assault or a stabbing or shooting every day in Hollywood now. People getting drunk every weekend playing with guns on Hollywood blvd watching some other drunk dumbass do donuts at the intersection and the LAPD doesn't care. 17 year old bystander was killed at one of these events in the summer (1). Yesterday a 70 year old man was killed in Venice when someone tried to steal his bike from him (2). It's been getting worse the last couple of years, but noticeably more amped up since covid killed a lot of foot traffic and therefore community surveillance that seemingly kept a lot of this belligerent behavior in check. Not sure how things are going back east, but it's getting pretty gritty over here. 1. https://abc7.com/hollywood-shooting-street-race-fatal-teen-killed/6335767/ https://abc7.com/hollywood-shooting-street-race-fatal-teen-k... 2. https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/73-year-old-man-dies-after-hitting-head-on-pavement-during-attempted-bicycle-snatching-in-venice/2452640/ https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/73-year-old-man-die...
  - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
    Not enforcing petty "crime with a victim" is a SoCal thing. You don't really have those issues in NYC, heck even in Baltimore, Newark or Trenton the cops won't pass up an opportunity for an easy arrest if they see someone prowling a bike rack with bolt cutters (and it won't be catch and release either, it'll be enough to make that kind of thing not worth the risk of doing flagrantly) Regarding the public drug use and other publicly visible low class behavior shenanigans, there's a large portion of the public that just DGAF.
    - whimsicalism 6y ago
      > Baltimore, Newark or Trenton the cops won't pass up an opportunity for an easy arrest Don't know about the others, but this is not true of Baltimore. Honestly, the largest predictor of how often I hear about "rampant, unenforced crime" seems to be the proportion of people in the city who moved from the suburbs and are unused to cities. > Regarding the public drug use and other publicly visible low class behavior shenanigans, there's a large portion of the public that just DGAF. I'm one of them - visible poverty is sad, but it doesn't make me fear for my life or feel like more jailing is needed. To me, as someone who grew up in a Baltimore-adjacent city, SF just seems like a city full of people who are city-inexperienced.
howlgarnish 6y ago
> "White flight", a largely racist reaction to the civil rights movement involving increased protests and riots in cities I think you have cause and effect reversed here. The original "pull" trigger was the automobile becoming affordable to the middle classes, making suburban living possible and leading to many leaving cities. The racist bit here is that many of these suburbs had covenants prohibiting non-whites. The "push" factor came when poorer (non-white) people started moving into these vacated, now cheaper inner city properties. This in turn led more whites to leave, but here too the push wasn't just racism, but also concerns about falling property values, rising crime, etc. Also, FWIW, as a non-American I found the SF of 2019 positively scary. Homeless camps in the Tenderloin, mentally ill people raving about murder on Market St, etc -- you don't see this kind of thing in equivalently wealthy European or Asian cities.
- ambernightcrush 6y ago
  You did mention racism but I would also say racism was a driving force since before white flight. The government precursors to Fannie mae and Freddie mac wouldn't back mortgages that banks created in redlined areas. And the precursor to HUD created segregated public housing, including in the west. The Federal government was pushing redlining and segregation in housing since at least the Great Depression. A lot of this is covered in "The Color of Law" by Richard Rothstein.
  - SamReidHughes 6y ago
    There were plenty of people liberal enough or cheap enough to live in a black neighborhood. Many tried. But they wound up 100% black/0% white anyway.
    - watwut 6y ago
      Redlining means that everyone living in or near black neighborhood cant get those mortgages or investments or whatever. It also means services are lower for everyone - including white liberals who have limited options just due to living there. What that also mean is that if one black family moves into white street, every white on that street is at risk to loose exact same things. They become redlined too. Redlining means that white people have financial incentive to segregate themselves and to push away incoming blacks. Liberal might not mind living with blacks, but will mind being unable to take mortgage he would be able to get otherwise.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
thatfrenchguy 6y ago
You assume people want more suburbs, more space. There will always be a market for real dense cities, and it’s not like tech folks participate a lot in making the city attractive (and I include myself in this assessment)

whimsicalism 6y ago

I don't see how your comment is at odds with what you're replying to. > cities are becoming visibly less safe Hm, I do not think this is true.

asdff 6y ago
It's true in LA at least. Petty crime is unenforced and people are well aware of that fact. I've seen people smoking crack or shooting up in broad daylight plenty of times this year, sometimes in front of city workers who do not care. Seems like there is an assault or a stabbing or shooting every day in Hollywood now. People getting drunk every weekend playing with guns on Hollywood blvd watching some other drunk dumbass do donuts at the intersection and the LAPD doesn't care. 17 year old bystander was killed at one of these events in the summer (1). Yesterday a 70 year old man was killed in Venice when someone tried to steal his bike from him (2). It's been getting worse the last couple of years, but noticeably more amped up since covid killed a lot of foot traffic and therefore community surveillance that seemingly kept a lot of this belligerent behavior in check. Not sure how things are going back east, but it's getting pretty gritty over here. 1. https://abc7.com/hollywood-shooting-street-race-fatal-teen-killed/6335767/ https://abc7.com/hollywood-shooting-street-race-fatal-teen-k... 2. https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/73-year-old-man-dies-after-hitting-head-on-pavement-during-attempted-bicycle-snatching-in-venice/2452640/ https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/73-year-old-man-die...
- throwaway0a5e 6y ago
  Not enforcing petty "crime with a victim" is a SoCal thing. You don't really have those issues in NYC, heck even in Baltimore, Newark or Trenton the cops won't pass up an opportunity for an easy arrest if they see someone prowling a bike rack with bolt cutters (and it won't be catch and release either, it'll be enough to make that kind of thing not worth the risk of doing flagrantly) Regarding the public drug use and other publicly visible low class behavior shenanigans, there's a large portion of the public that just DGAF.
  - whimsicalism 6y ago
    > Baltimore, Newark or Trenton the cops won't pass up an opportunity for an easy arrest Don't know about the others, but this is not true of Baltimore. Honestly, the largest predictor of how often I hear about "rampant, unenforced crime" seems to be the proportion of people in the city who moved from the suburbs and are unused to cities. > Regarding the public drug use and other publicly visible low class behavior shenanigans, there's a large portion of the public that just DGAF. I'm one of them - visible poverty is sad, but it doesn't make me fear for my life or feel like more jailing is needed. To me, as someone who grew up in a Baltimore-adjacent city, SF just seems like a city full of people who are city-inexperienced.

howlgarnish 6y ago

> "White flight", a largely racist reaction to the civil rights movement involving increased protests and riots in cities I think you have cause and effect reversed here. The original "pull" trigger was the automobile becoming affordable to the middle classes, making suburban living possible and leading to many leaving cities. The racist bit here is that many of these suburbs had covenants prohibiting non-whites. The "push" factor came when poorer (non-white) people started moving into these vacated, now cheaper inner city properties. This in turn led more whites to leave, but here too the push wasn't just racism, but also concerns about falling property values, rising crime, etc. Also, FWIW, as a non-American I found the SF of 2019 positively scary. Homeless camps in the Tenderloin, mentally ill people raving about murder on Market St, etc -- you don't see this kind of thing in equivalently wealthy European or Asian cities.

ambernightcrush 6y ago
You did mention racism but I would also say racism was a driving force since before white flight. The government precursors to Fannie mae and Freddie mac wouldn't back mortgages that banks created in redlined areas. And the precursor to HUD created segregated public housing, including in the west. The Federal government was pushing redlining and segregation in housing since at least the Great Depression. A lot of this is covered in "The Color of Law" by Richard Rothstein.
- SamReidHughes 6y ago
  There were plenty of people liberal enough or cheap enough to live in a black neighborhood. Many tried. But they wound up 100% black/0% white anyway.
  - watwut 6y ago
    Redlining means that everyone living in or near black neighborhood cant get those mortgages or investments or whatever. It also means services are lower for everyone - including white liberals who have limited options just due to living there. What that also mean is that if one black family moves into white street, every white on that street is at risk to loose exact same things. They become redlined too. Redlining means that white people have financial incentive to segregate themselves and to push away incoming blacks. Liberal might not mind living with blacks, but will mind being unable to take mortgage he would be able to get otherwise.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

thatfrenchguy 6y ago

You assume people want more suburbs, more space. There will always be a market for real dense cities, and it’s not like tech folks participate a lot in making the city attractive (and I include myself in this assessment)