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I don't agree with your conclusion but Neil Ferguson has indeed been wrong. His model predicted 85,000 deaths in Sweden by now. I don't understand why the Imper
by Kiro 6y ago
I don't agree with your conclusion but Neil Ferguson has indeed been wrong. His model predicted 85,000 deaths in Sweden by now. I don't understand why the Imperial models are still taken seriously.
- singemonkey 6y agoPlease stop parroting this kind of misinformation.
- acdha 6y agoThis is a popular right-wing trope but I’ve never seen a source despite the reports being available and the full model being on GitHub. Can you provide a citation for that exact claim? https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana... https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model
- Kiro 6y agoIn Sweden it's a left-wing trope (the right wants lockdown and masks while the left supports the lax approach so the model has mostly received criticism from the left) and I believed it but you're completely right, so I apologize: https://twitter.com/imperialcollege/status/1307760615545606145 https://twitter.com/imperialcollege/status/13077606155456061... > Thanks for confirming: Neil Ferguson’s Imperial model did not point to 85,000 Covid deaths for Sweden; another researcher did. A mean time-varying reproduction number Rt estimate in March is not a prediction of deaths nor is it a model for predicting them.
- acdha 6y agoAh, I should have been more specific that I only follow this in the English-language media so I’ve seen it newspapers in the UK or Australia (the US discourse doesn’t mention this much).