4 ms·

I must admit as an outsider I think that might happen. The GOP needs to do what John Smith, Tony and Gordan did and kick out the entryist faction that is destr

I must admit as an outsider I think that might happen. The GOP needs to do what John Smith, Tony and Gordan did and kick out the entryist faction that is destroying the party but I suspect its to late.

reducesuffering 6y ago
Libertarian Party has been historically closer to the Republicans, and is the 3rd most popular, getting up to 5-6% popular vote in some states. If the Republicans really try to contest a Democratic election win, and fail, that could be the devastating blow that would tip Libertarians into assuming the two-party spot.
- giantg2 6y ago
  I highly doubt that you could flip the majority of either dominat party into a third party. For a third party to have a chance, you would need individuals from both dominat parties to switch. I say this because most people see their party affiliation as part of their identity and a switch may create substantial cognitive dissonance. Also factor in the combative nature of politics and people won't leave their party if they know it means the opposition party would be more likely to win. It's similar to how many people see this election and the prior election as a choice for the lesser of two evils - it's not about winning, but about the other side not winning. The way I explain my view on the election is that it is a choice between a shit sandwich and a shit sandwich without the bread. Which one is which depends on the topic/policy that matters most to each voter, but they are both terrible choices.
runawaybottle 6y ago
Or another thing that could be very healthy for America is to finally have a few election cycles where both the Dem/Rep candidate are not reprehensible. That stops the narrative from becoming dire as ‘the most important election in our lifetime, and we can’t have a third party candidate stealing votes’. Democrats are particularly guilty of using this excuse over and over, and at some point need to stop resorting to it.
- mschuster91 6y ago
  The problem is that the Democrats literally can't put up a candidate that would even be considered "social democrat" or "centrist" by European standards. Even Biden is center-right from our point of view. Everyone they could put up would just get smeared and mercilessly attacked by the entire political and media right wing, from the far right Tea Party/QAnon/MAGA/Breitbart/Fox following of the Republicans to the fringes of the Democrats, as "socialist", "communist" or whatever. Even Joe fucking Biden who doesn't support something as basic as M4A gets called an "anarchist ally", it's madness. I am not sure how the US is ever supposed to fix this, given literal decades of red scare brainwashing. I'm afraid that the only real way out of the current mess, assuming that either Trump "wins" (or wins for real) or Biden gets locked by a R-majority Senate under "Moscow Mitch" McConnell may/will be some sort of revolution - when there are millions upon millions of people who are out of a job and homeless, who have nothing to lose any more.
- TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
  There's some debate whether it actually happened in 2000 with Nader acting as a spoiler who allowed Bush to win. It certainly became a stock Dem talking point, but it's difficult to be sure whether it really made a telling difference. Personally I don't think America can be fixed at this point. The gap between the tribes is now so extreme it's practically evolutionary speciation, and Democrats and Republicans are barely breeding with each other. This is not a joke. The differences seem to be rooted in psychology - strongly correlated with parenting - and perhaps through inherited brain structure. At some point "They are not like us" stops being rhetoric and becomes biological reality. I think we're closer to that point than we realise - in the US, and also the UK.
  - leetcrew 6y ago
    > The gap between the tribes is now so extreme it's practically evolutionary speciation, and Democrats and Republicans are barely breeding with each other. > This is not a joke. The differences seem to be rooted in psychology - strongly correlated with parenting - and perhaps through inherited brain structure. I have a hard time believing this. my own two parents are on more or less opposite ends of the mainstream political spectrum. in my generation, it seems pretty common to find right-leaning (especially libertarian) men dating liberal women. the socially conscious girlfriend gently scolding her boyfriend for saying something non-PC is so common, it's almost a trope at this point. the far-left progressives and full-on MAGA types seem incapable of coexisting in the same room for more than five minutes, but I don't think there are nearly as many of either of these as you would conclude from watching the news and reading social media. most people just want to live their lives and don't see a compelling reason to scream their political positions out into the world. I think one of the likely outcomes in the next ten years is that we collectively realize the polarization of US culture was mostly an illusion.

reducesuffering 6y ago

Libertarian Party has been historically closer to the Republicans, and is the 3rd most popular, getting up to 5-6% popular vote in some states. If the Republicans really try to contest a Democratic election win, and fail, that could be the devastating blow that would tip Libertarians into assuming the two-party spot.

giantg2 6y ago
I highly doubt that you could flip the majority of either dominat party into a third party. For a third party to have a chance, you would need individuals from both dominat parties to switch. I say this because most people see their party affiliation as part of their identity and a switch may create substantial cognitive dissonance. Also factor in the combative nature of politics and people won't leave their party if they know it means the opposition party would be more likely to win. It's similar to how many people see this election and the prior election as a choice for the lesser of two evils - it's not about winning, but about the other side not winning. The way I explain my view on the election is that it is a choice between a shit sandwich and a shit sandwich without the bread. Which one is which depends on the topic/policy that matters most to each voter, but they are both terrible choices.

runawaybottle 6y ago

Or another thing that could be very healthy for America is to finally have a few election cycles where both the Dem/Rep candidate are not reprehensible. That stops the narrative from becoming dire as ‘the most important election in our lifetime, and we can’t have a third party candidate stealing votes’. Democrats are particularly guilty of using this excuse over and over, and at some point need to stop resorting to it.

mschuster91 6y ago
The problem is that the Democrats literally can't put up a candidate that would even be considered "social democrat" or "centrist" by European standards. Even Biden is center-right from our point of view. Everyone they could put up would just get smeared and mercilessly attacked by the entire political and media right wing, from the far right Tea Party/QAnon/MAGA/Breitbart/Fox following of the Republicans to the fringes of the Democrats, as "socialist", "communist" or whatever. Even Joe fucking Biden who doesn't support something as basic as M4A gets called an "anarchist ally", it's madness. I am not sure how the US is ever supposed to fix this, given literal decades of red scare brainwashing. I'm afraid that the only real way out of the current mess, assuming that either Trump "wins" (or wins for real) or Biden gets locked by a R-majority Senate under "Moscow Mitch" McConnell may/will be some sort of revolution - when there are millions upon millions of people who are out of a job and homeless, who have nothing to lose any more.
TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
There's some debate whether it actually happened in 2000 with Nader acting as a spoiler who allowed Bush to win. It certainly became a stock Dem talking point, but it's difficult to be sure whether it really made a telling difference. Personally I don't think America can be fixed at this point. The gap between the tribes is now so extreme it's practically evolutionary speciation, and Democrats and Republicans are barely breeding with each other. This is not a joke. The differences seem to be rooted in psychology - strongly correlated with parenting - and perhaps through inherited brain structure. At some point "They are not like us" stops being rhetoric and becomes biological reality. I think we're closer to that point than we realise - in the US, and also the UK.
- leetcrew 6y ago
  > The gap between the tribes is now so extreme it's practically evolutionary speciation, and Democrats and Republicans are barely breeding with each other. > This is not a joke. The differences seem to be rooted in psychology - strongly correlated with parenting - and perhaps through inherited brain structure. I have a hard time believing this. my own two parents are on more or less opposite ends of the mainstream political spectrum. in my generation, it seems pretty common to find right-leaning (especially libertarian) men dating liberal women. the socially conscious girlfriend gently scolding her boyfriend for saying something non-PC is so common, it's almost a trope at this point. the far-left progressives and full-on MAGA types seem incapable of coexisting in the same room for more than five minutes, but I don't think there are nearly as many of either of these as you would conclude from watching the news and reading social media. most people just want to live their lives and don't see a compelling reason to scream their political positions out into the world. I think one of the likely outcomes in the next ten years is that we collectively realize the polarization of US culture was mostly an illusion.