3 ms·

Unless a vaccine comes along there'll come a point where The West will have resigned itself to be living with the virus. What will Aus/NZ do then? Pandemic-fat

Unless a vaccine comes along there'll come a point where The West will have resigned itself to be living with the virus. What will Aus/NZ do then? Pandemic-fatigue is a real thing, both will always be at risk from a nutter not self-isolating properly when they return from abroad. Everyone's strategy is to wait for a vaccine.

accurrent 6y ago
Aus/NZ can continue trade with the East Asian nations I guess? Many East Asian nations have brought this under control through strict lockdown. Of course some things that are missing from the argument are the fact that many East Asian nations that have controlled the virus have extremely well organized governments which are able to deliver stimulus where needed. For myself living in Singapore, the government has been fairly generous with economic stimulus.
Zenst 6y ago
>Unless a vaccine comes along there'll come a point where The West will have resigned itself to be living with the virus. That will be the case, unsure there will be a vaccine that will give you a lifetime immunity (hopeful but I have serious doubts upon that myself the more I learn about this area). More likely to be like the flu vaccine, changes each year or requires a yearly booster perhaps. More case of managing the sick numbers that need treatment in hospitals and capacity planning, over time - natural immunity, vaccines will provide that level of throttling as we get with the flu. Though supply/demand does play out in many forms and gradually gets to a balance that is manageable, we are just at the stage of the initial rush and year or two on, things will start to become more settled. Though that pattern plays out in many forms in life and is a supply/demand with the supply being hospital/care capacity and demand being the virus nobody wants. Hopefully more focus upon health armies over the conventional armies will arise. Certainly I'd not rule out countries doing health work conscription of some form in years to come - even just to educate people about basics and more so - better prepared for such events/disasters - which happen more than war.
graeme 6y ago
So for australia/nz to have trouble, as you suggested: 1. The traveller must be infected (sub 5% odds) 2. They must decide to break isolation (most people are honest) 3. They must actively be infectious at the time they do (most people infect zero people. The household attack rate is 17%!) 4. They have to go someplace where they can infect many (e.g. a bar rather than breaking isolation for a park or groceries or family) 5. The govt must be slow to react once cases are detected NZ has had outbreaks but reverted to normal. As you say, everyone is waiting for a vaccine. Seems infinitely preferable to wait in NZ rather than in France or UK which just locked down again. You’re functionally quite free in australia and NZ.
- secondcoming 6y ago
  All very good, but I used the phrase 'nutter' for a reason! I'm in the UK and it's shit at the moment. Personally, I believe the financial, and mental health cost of the lockdowns has probably exceeded the cost to human lives. It's an awful thing to have written. I think this lockdown will be the last. Vaccine or not, things will have to get back to 'normal' at some point.
  - graeme 6y ago
    It’s all very well and good to say, but without a second lockdown UK hospital capacity would have gotten overwhelmed. And then what do you do? There’s no normal while that’s happening. I think it’s crazy that the UK let themselves get to this position again: this predicament was utterly predictable in spring. But having got into this predicament, what option is there? The sensible thing would be to figure out a sustainable long run policy once the wave has been beaten. Not sure that’s elimination now: it will be much harder to eliminate covid in the Uk over winter than it would have been over spring/summer
    - secondcoming 6y ago
      They really need to close borders to everyone except British passport holders. That will be extremely unpopular, and given the multi-national make up of the UK population, citizens travelling to places like Ireland, India, Pakistan, European continent, etc to visit relatives, even that may not help. The general population also needs to give more of a fuck. Blaming the government is a total cop-out. They cannot morally, or possibly even legally, physically stop people from mingling. Young people travelling to Ibiza and the like for their holidays didn't help. Some people have zero sense of civic duty. Personally, I haven't seen my family in person for almost a year. I'm probably going to spend Christmas on my own. It'll be depressing but it has to be done. I can handle it. There are people out there who cannot.

accurrent 6y ago

Aus/NZ can continue trade with the East Asian nations I guess? Many East Asian nations have brought this under control through strict lockdown. Of course some things that are missing from the argument are the fact that many East Asian nations that have controlled the virus have extremely well organized governments which are able to deliver stimulus where needed. For myself living in Singapore, the government has been fairly generous with economic stimulus.

Zenst 6y ago

>Unless a vaccine comes along there'll come a point where The West will have resigned itself to be living with the virus. That will be the case, unsure there will be a vaccine that will give you a lifetime immunity (hopeful but I have serious doubts upon that myself the more I learn about this area). More likely to be like the flu vaccine, changes each year or requires a yearly booster perhaps. More case of managing the sick numbers that need treatment in hospitals and capacity planning, over time - natural immunity, vaccines will provide that level of throttling as we get with the flu. Though supply/demand does play out in many forms and gradually gets to a balance that is manageable, we are just at the stage of the initial rush and year or two on, things will start to become more settled. Though that pattern plays out in many forms in life and is a supply/demand with the supply being hospital/care capacity and demand being the virus nobody wants. Hopefully more focus upon health armies over the conventional armies will arise. Certainly I'd not rule out countries doing health work conscription of some form in years to come - even just to educate people about basics and more so - better prepared for such events/disasters - which happen more than war.

graeme 6y ago

So for australia/nz to have trouble, as you suggested: 1. The traveller must be infected (sub 5% odds) 2. They must decide to break isolation (most people are honest) 3. They must actively be infectious at the time they do (most people infect zero people. The household attack rate is 17%!) 4. They have to go someplace where they can infect many (e.g. a bar rather than breaking isolation for a park or groceries or family) 5. The govt must be slow to react once cases are detected NZ has had outbreaks but reverted to normal. As you say, everyone is waiting for a vaccine. Seems infinitely preferable to wait in NZ rather than in France or UK which just locked down again. You’re functionally quite free in australia and NZ.

secondcoming 6y ago
All very good, but I used the phrase 'nutter' for a reason! I'm in the UK and it's shit at the moment. Personally, I believe the financial, and mental health cost of the lockdowns has probably exceeded the cost to human lives. It's an awful thing to have written. I think this lockdown will be the last. Vaccine or not, things will have to get back to 'normal' at some point.
- graeme 6y ago
  It’s all very well and good to say, but without a second lockdown UK hospital capacity would have gotten overwhelmed. And then what do you do? There’s no normal while that’s happening. I think it’s crazy that the UK let themselves get to this position again: this predicament was utterly predictable in spring. But having got into this predicament, what option is there? The sensible thing would be to figure out a sustainable long run policy once the wave has been beaten. Not sure that’s elimination now: it will be much harder to eliminate covid in the Uk over winter than it would have been over spring/summer
  - secondcoming 6y ago
    They really need to close borders to everyone except British passport holders. That will be extremely unpopular, and given the multi-national make up of the UK population, citizens travelling to places like Ireland, India, Pakistan, European continent, etc to visit relatives, even that may not help. The general population also needs to give more of a fuck. Blaming the government is a total cop-out. They cannot morally, or possibly even legally, physically stop people from mingling. Young people travelling to Ibiza and the like for their holidays didn't help. Some people have zero sense of civic duty. Personally, I haven't seen my family in person for almost a year. I'm probably going to spend Christmas on my own. It'll be depressing but it has to be done. I can handle it. There are people out there who cannot.