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I'm telling you, empirically if you do this, the virus goes away. The proof is in the pudding: we are seeing this strategy work. Those grocery store shoppers

I'm telling you, empirically if you do this, the virus goes away. The proof is in the pudding: we are seeing this strategy work. Those grocery store shoppers might be susceptible, but it turns out that not enough of them get infected for this strategy to fail if it is stuck to for long enough. I'm posting this from Victoria, where we've had zero new COVID cases for three days now. I'm telling you, it works.

nickthemagicman 6y ago
It doesn't work ....it DELAYS. Has any virus ever just gone away..... Once society lets down it's guard, if your country hasn't reached herd immunity when the virus returns you're back to lockdown. Perpetual corona whack a mole. There's no realistic way out of this other than herd immunity through a vaccine or natural means. Non vaccine human control of this virus is impossible long term.
- JoeAltmaier 6y ago
  Some places have eradicated it by careful tracking and isolation. It's a virus. It has no reservoir but currently infected people. In fact, if we could all stay isolate for 2 weeks it would be gone from the earth. Of course that's impossible but combination strategies can (have) worked.
  - nickthemagicman 6y ago
    Didn't it emerge from a natural reservoir like bats or monkeys? Ebola's reservoir has yet to have been discovered but it's still there.
    - doubleunplussed 6y ago
      Ok, in that case I agree with you that it only delays re-introduction. By, like, a hundred years. I'll take that. Obviously the bigger risk to Australia et al is reintroduction from other countries. So Australia's borders will continue to require 14 days of quarantine until there is a good enough vaccine. However, New Zealand has now seen three re-introductions, and they have managed to suppress them just fine so far. So if this is what delaying the inevitable looks like, I'll take it too. Seems like it can be delayed an awfully long time. Maintaining quarantine at borders is an option, if a country decides they want to do it. Australia decided it wanted to. I see no reason why this can't be sustained indefinitely, it's merely a matter of how long Australia is willing to have a border quarantine system in place (which comes with all kinds of costs due to reduced international travel). There's no epidemiological reason the virus can't be suppressed and kept out of a given region. The only remaining question is how soon we expect a vaccine such that this isolation is worth it in the long run. If a vaccine never comes then it is not a viable strategy, otherwise, it does seem like a good call. Just want to remind you that I'm writing this from Australia where there is practically no virus in the community and are freedoms are increasing rather than decreasing. I don't expect there'll be widespread COVID in Australia ever again, as we've gotten quite good at suppressing small outbreaks now.
      - nickthemagicman 6y ago
        Flu and Ebola rear their ugly heads constantly yearly even. So every hundred years would be cool but not guaranteed. These are very optimistic beliefs of yours and time will tell. You have to keep in mind that even if the virus is able to be contained by human intervention..there is a cost of perpetual repressive policies: closed borders, mask wearing, burden on small businesses, social distancing, etc. Herd immunity via vaccine or natural acquisition is the only way we'll ever fully go back to normal. And I do wish you all the best over there, and hope that all of this is as manageable as it appears. Either way if a vaccine reappears were mostly back to normal.

nickthemagicman 6y ago

It doesn't work ....it DELAYS. Has any virus ever just gone away..... Once society lets down it's guard, if your country hasn't reached herd immunity when the virus returns you're back to lockdown. Perpetual corona whack a mole. There's no realistic way out of this other than herd immunity through a vaccine or natural means. Non vaccine human control of this virus is impossible long term.

JoeAltmaier 6y ago
Some places have eradicated it by careful tracking and isolation. It's a virus. It has no reservoir but currently infected people. In fact, if we could all stay isolate for 2 weeks it would be gone from the earth. Of course that's impossible but combination strategies can (have) worked.
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  Didn't it emerge from a natural reservoir like bats or monkeys? Ebola's reservoir has yet to have been discovered but it's still there.
  - doubleunplussed 6y ago
    Ok, in that case I agree with you that it only delays re-introduction. By, like, a hundred years. I'll take that. Obviously the bigger risk to Australia et al is reintroduction from other countries. So Australia's borders will continue to require 14 days of quarantine until there is a good enough vaccine. However, New Zealand has now seen three re-introductions, and they have managed to suppress them just fine so far. So if this is what delaying the inevitable looks like, I'll take it too. Seems like it can be delayed an awfully long time. Maintaining quarantine at borders is an option, if a country decides they want to do it. Australia decided it wanted to. I see no reason why this can't be sustained indefinitely, it's merely a matter of how long Australia is willing to have a border quarantine system in place (which comes with all kinds of costs due to reduced international travel). There's no epidemiological reason the virus can't be suppressed and kept out of a given region. The only remaining question is how soon we expect a vaccine such that this isolation is worth it in the long run. If a vaccine never comes then it is not a viable strategy, otherwise, it does seem like a good call. Just want to remind you that I'm writing this from Australia where there is practically no virus in the community and are freedoms are increasing rather than decreasing. I don't expect there'll be widespread COVID in Australia ever again, as we've gotten quite good at suppressing small outbreaks now.
    - nickthemagicman 6y ago
      Flu and Ebola rear their ugly heads constantly yearly even. So every hundred years would be cool but not guaranteed. These are very optimistic beliefs of yours and time will tell. You have to keep in mind that even if the virus is able to be contained by human intervention..there is a cost of perpetual repressive policies: closed borders, mask wearing, burden on small businesses, social distancing, etc. Herd immunity via vaccine or natural acquisition is the only way we'll ever fully go back to normal. And I do wish you all the best over there, and hope that all of this is as manageable as it appears. Either way if a vaccine reappears were mostly back to normal.