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But finite life expectancies effectively act as a cap on that process. In the very best case, you only have about half a century to compound wealth. Modern Ame
by dcolkitt 6y ago
But finite life expectancies effectively act as a cap on that process. In the very best case, you only have about half a century to compound wealth.
Modern America is not very conducive to preserving intergenerational wealth. Of the top ten richest Americans, only one is not a first-generation billionaire. Rockefeller despite amassing an enormous fortune, equivalent to $400 billion today, does not have any heirs in the top 100 a century later.
There's a number of factors at play here. First, US estate taxes tend to be consistently high around 35%+ and pretty hard to avoid. Second, unlike traditional aristocracies, the scions of American capitalism rarely arrange marriages with other prominent families. Consequently dynastic wealth almost always gets diluted by 50% or more every generation. Third, US GDP growth has historically averaged pretty high around 3% per annum. The relative size of a fortune to the broader economy is constantly shrinking per year.
These factors combine to make the relative size of a dynastic fortune shrink by about 85% per generation. Assuming a generation gap of 30 years, you'd have to achieve consistent real returns of 7% a year. And that's assuming no loss of capital due to consumption, philanthropy, divorce, capital gains tax, dividend taxes or fraud.
Over the past century, equities have only averaged a 6% real rate of return. Unless you have significant financial or business acumen, sustainably beating the stock market on a large portfolio over decades is virtually impossible. On an inter-generational basis that talent is very unlikely to be present in every scion. A dynasty with a penchant for risk-taking is far more likely to blow their fortune by some idiot son along the way.
- djrobstep 6y agoWhat you say is simply not true - we know this because the fundamental measure - concentration of wealth - is continually increasing. Intergenerational mobility, particularly at the very top, is interesting, but ultimately irrelevant to most people. What is relevant are the vast quantities of people who suffer from poverty and grotesque inequality. Imagine explaining to some homeless person that society was pretty fine actually because in several generations somebody will have overtaken Bezos. Put another way - you don't make an unfair ladder fair by rapidly re-arranging people on it as much as possible (aka "social mobility" or "opportunity") you make it fair by flattening the ladder (inequality reduction) and making the bottom of the ladder a less unpleasant place to be (poverty reduction).
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- sethherr 6y agoRockefeller had a tax rate more than twice what today’s tax rate on the super wealthy is.
- TeMPOraL 6y agoThat doesn't seem to matter, though. To extend the parent's example: Bob and Fred both die at age 43 (18 + 25). During their life, they both married and had children, Barbara and Felicia, respectively. While the US system is not conductive to preserving intergenerational wealth, it's still true that the wealthier can pass on more than the less wealthy. So at their age of 18, Barbra starts with 20 units of utility, and Fiona with 8. Sure, Bob has passed on much smaller percentage of their wealth than Fred, but his descendant is still better off than Fred's.