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You’ve got some heavily inaccurate assumptions about how the virus spreads. Most infected people spread to nobody, even without restrictions. The bulk of spread

by graeme 6y ago

You’ve got some heavily inaccurate assumptions about how the virus spreads. Most infected people spread to nobody, even without restrictions. The bulk of spread happens in clusters in poorly ventilated indoor environments. The household attack rate is something like 17%. That’s people living in the same house. 83% of people don’t get it! To have a sustained outbreak breach quarantine, you’d need: 1. An infected person to arrive (probably less than 2% of arrivals are infected) 2. This infected person must breach isolation protocol. (Most people are honest or fear or penalties) 3. They must be infectious when they breach protocol (you are only very infectious for five days or so) 4. They must go to a place apt to superspreading (not everyone breaching isolation will go to a bar or a party) 5. The newly infected must all remain asymptomatic and not seek testing 6. Once community spread is detected, the government must delay taking action, fail to contact trace, and avoid implementing new measures This is obviously possible. Outbreaks have happened in Australia, Vietnam, New Zealand, New Brunswick. But it is much, much less likely than you suggest, which is why you’re being downvoted: you’re completely failing to consider the system dynamics. And in each case step 6 has put things back on track pretty quick. Australia is the exception, but there the local government was slow to respond and so they needed a big, long lockdown. Other areas responded quickly and so the necessary lockdown has been short. I’m in the Atlantic bubble. Frankly it leaks like a sieve and yet it’s still been enough to keep out infections for now. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overloo...

nickthemagicman 6y ago
I think a lot of what you said doesn't take into account how actual reality works. I think the system dynamics you're using may be purely academic. I was saying one person as an example...but America has millions of undocumented people that snuck across the border here. Do you honestly think other countries don't? Borders are very fluid. Humans are social creatures by nature. They're going to come into infectious proximity of hundreds if not thousands of people a week at grocery stores, restaraunts, gas stations, bars, salons, etc. Also theres's science showing corona virus stays on surfaces for days which means if they cough on a surface like a doorknob that can spread to people they weren't in contact with. Contact tracing is useless. Like I said.. once again.. youre just lucky and are patting yourself on the back too soon... or your region has reached some form of herd immunity.

by graeme 6y ago

nickthemagicman 6y ago

I think a lot of what you said doesn't take into account how actual reality works. I think the system dynamics you're using may be purely academic. I was saying one person as an example...but America has millions of undocumented people that snuck across the border here. Do you honestly think other countries don't? Borders are very fluid. Humans are social creatures by nature. They're going to come into infectious proximity of hundreds if not thousands of people a week at grocery stores, restaraunts, gas stations, bars, salons, etc. Also theres's science showing corona virus stays on surfaces for days which means if they cough on a surface like a doorknob that can spread to people they weren't in contact with. Contact tracing is useless. Like I said.. once again.. youre just lucky and are patting yourself on the back too soon... or your region has reached some form of herd immunity.