Perhaps useless was too harsh. But the point I was trying to make is that in a situation with so much uncertainty and where the downsides are constrained, it's

Perhaps useless was too harsh. But the point I was trying to make is that in a situation with so much uncertainty and where the downsides are constrained, it's better to act and get real world feedback. Doubly dangerous to blindly believe in the plan and execute it well if it's flawed. You're right about your conclusion though. Trouble is, it's often only possible to tell ex-post-facto.