Even with a vaccine, I'd expect the world to be different than a year ago. There will be long-term changes. Much of Asia went through such changes after SARS, s

Even with a vaccine, I'd expect the world to be different than a year ago. There will be long-term changes. Much of Asia went through such changes after SARS, so the world has experience with this. But we can get to something very close to normal, with differences from before. More mask-wearing, more government powers to do contact tracing, more health checks on borders and other travel limitations, more remote work, etc. So it might not be the same "normal" as before, and some of those things will be unpleasant, but we can live with them (and some will have other benefits, like remote work and a decrease in flights will help against climate change). And specifically I think you're downplaying a vaccine. Even a 70% effective one would make a huge difference in how the virus spreads, potentially decreasing R below 1 even in Europe and the US and other hard-hit areas.