4 ms·
My personal theory is that weather is proximate. The spread is not about population density and social patterns. Take England. I’ve lived in London. There’s a
by cletus 6y ago
My personal theory is that weather is proximate. The spread is not about population density and social patterns.
Take England. I’ve lived in London. There’s a large segment of British social life that revolves around going “down pub”. People will gather at pubs in confined spaces for long periods of time. Those seem like the perfect conditions for community spread. It comes as no surprise to me that England is in another lockdown.
Boer I’m sure weather plays a part on that. Nicer weather and people might go on holiday out do things outdoors but once the weather starts to cool? They’re back to the pub.
I suspect you’ll see patterns like this in other places.
As for your theory in cool climates, well you’re also hitting the climate barrier for high density living and high population centers.
There are outliers (eg Moscow) but generally speaking big cities aren’t in Arctic-like climates.
I don’t know Melbourne at all but o suspect there’s a predilection for pubs, bars, nightclubs and restaurants and there’ll be some relationship there between colder weather and indoor patronage.
- tomhoward 6y agoFor what it's worth, pubs/bars/restaurants were already closed when Melbourne's major outbreak happened. The outbreak really took hold when households intermingled in May/June and spread it to each other, then when it got into aged care homes (with staff that worked across multiple facilities) it was all over. I think you're being too specific, pinning it on pubs, etc. It just needs people intermingling in confined spaces of any kind; homes, apartment buildings, workplaces, hospitals/care homes, churches, schools, sporting events, public transportation, and sure pubs/bars too, but any/all of these are conducive to spread.