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I think the idea is to suppress numbers via lockdown to the point where contact tracing, along with ubiquitous testing, can detect and squash any local outbreak

I think the idea is to suppress numbers via lockdown to the point where contact tracing, along with ubiquitous testing, can detect and squash any local outbreaks before they spread widely, and people can live somewhat normally. Afaict that has been the plan all along in the US as well (in terms of what scientists and infectious disease experts were saying), but most states and the administration gave up on that months ago, e.g. the national "testing czar" declaring the required testing capacity impossible.

nickthemagicman 6y ago
How is that possible given that the virus spreads so rapidly, asymptomatic people can spread the virus, and the tests aren't 100% accurate and population size is large? By the time an out break is identified hundreds or thousands of people have possibly been infected.
- doubleunplussed 6y ago
  It's not asymptomatic enough, not infectious enough, for that to be impossible. Multiple Australian states have demonstrated this, as have China, New Zealand, Taiwan and a few others. If every time you get a symptomatic case that tests positive, you isolate contacts and secondary contacts, you will have isolated enough of the asymptomatic cases and false negative tests to get R < 1 and halt the spread of the virus.
  - nickthemagicman 6y ago
    If they go to the grocery store that's hundreds of people they contact potentially. Its odd that you believe that only contacts and secondary contacts are susceptible. With an natural r naught of three and the and the fact that it stays on surfaces for days...it's just a matter of time until another outbreak happens.
    - doubleunplussed 6y ago
      I'm telling you, empirically if you do this, the virus goes away. The proof is in the pudding: we are seeing this strategy work. Those grocery store shoppers might be susceptible, but it turns out that not enough of them get infected for this strategy to fail if it is stuck to for long enough. I'm posting this from Victoria, where we've had zero new COVID cases for three days now. I'm telling you, it works.
      - nickthemagicman 6y ago
        It doesn't work ....it DELAYS. Has any virus ever just gone away..... Once society lets down it's guard, if your country hasn't reached herd immunity when the virus returns you're back to lockdown. Perpetual corona whack a mole. There's no realistic way out of this other than herd immunity through a vaccine or natural means. Non vaccine human control of this virus is impossible long term.
        JoeAltmaier 6y ago
        Some places have eradicated it by careful tracking and isolation. It's a virus. It has no reservoir but currently infected people. In fact, if we could all stay isolate for 2 weeks it would be gone from the earth. Of course that's impossible but combination strategies can (have) worked.
        nickthemagicman 6y ago
        Didn't it emerge from a natural reservoir like bats or monkeys? Ebola's reservoir has yet to have been discovered but it's still there.
        doubleunplussed 6y ago
        Ok, in that case I agree with you that it only delays re-introduction. By, like, a hundred years. I'll take that. Obviously the bigger risk to Australia et al is reintroduction from other countries. So Australia's borders will continue to require 14 days of quarantine until there is a good enough vaccine. However, New Zealand has now seen three re-introductions, and they have managed to suppress them just fine so far. So if this is what delaying the inevitable looks like, I'll take it too. Seems like it can be delayed an awfully long time. Maintaining quarantine at borders is an option, if a country decides they want to do it. Australia decided it wanted to. I see no reason why this can't be sustained indefinitely, it's merely a matter of how long Australia is willing to have a border quarantine system in place (which comes with all kinds of costs due to reduced international travel). There's no epidemiological reason the virus can't be suppressed and kept out of a given region. The only remaining question is how soon we expect a vaccine such that this isolation is worth it in the long run. If a vaccine never comes then it is not a viable strategy, otherwise, it does seem like a good call. Just want to remind you that I'm writing this from Australia where there is practically no virus in the community and are freedoms are increasing rather than decreasing. I don't expect there'll be widespread COVID in Australia ever again, as we've gotten quite good at suppressing small outbreaks now.

nickthemagicman 6y ago

How is that possible given that the virus spreads so rapidly, asymptomatic people can spread the virus, and the tests aren't 100% accurate and population size is large? By the time an out break is identified hundreds or thousands of people have possibly been infected.

doubleunplussed 6y ago
It's not asymptomatic enough, not infectious enough, for that to be impossible. Multiple Australian states have demonstrated this, as have China, New Zealand, Taiwan and a few others. If every time you get a symptomatic case that tests positive, you isolate contacts and secondary contacts, you will have isolated enough of the asymptomatic cases and false negative tests to get R < 1 and halt the spread of the virus.
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  If they go to the grocery store that's hundreds of people they contact potentially. Its odd that you believe that only contacts and secondary contacts are susceptible. With an natural r naught of three and the and the fact that it stays on surfaces for days...it's just a matter of time until another outbreak happens.
  - doubleunplussed 6y ago
    I'm telling you, empirically if you do this, the virus goes away. The proof is in the pudding: we are seeing this strategy work. Those grocery store shoppers might be susceptible, but it turns out that not enough of them get infected for this strategy to fail if it is stuck to for long enough. I'm posting this from Victoria, where we've had zero new COVID cases for three days now. I'm telling you, it works.
    - nickthemagicman 6y ago
      It doesn't work ....it DELAYS. Has any virus ever just gone away..... Once society lets down it's guard, if your country hasn't reached herd immunity when the virus returns you're back to lockdown. Perpetual corona whack a mole. There's no realistic way out of this other than herd immunity through a vaccine or natural means. Non vaccine human control of this virus is impossible long term.
      - JoeAltmaier 6y ago
        Some places have eradicated it by careful tracking and isolation. It's a virus. It has no reservoir but currently infected people. In fact, if we could all stay isolate for 2 weeks it would be gone from the earth. Of course that's impossible but combination strategies can (have) worked.
        nickthemagicman 6y ago
        Didn't it emerge from a natural reservoir like bats or monkeys? Ebola's reservoir has yet to have been discovered but it's still there.
        doubleunplussed 6y ago
        Ok, in that case I agree with you that it only delays re-introduction. By, like, a hundred years. I'll take that. Obviously the bigger risk to Australia et al is reintroduction from other countries. So Australia's borders will continue to require 14 days of quarantine until there is a good enough vaccine. However, New Zealand has now seen three re-introductions, and they have managed to suppress them just fine so far. So if this is what delaying the inevitable looks like, I'll take it too. Seems like it can be delayed an awfully long time. Maintaining quarantine at borders is an option, if a country decides they want to do it. Australia decided it wanted to. I see no reason why this can't be sustained indefinitely, it's merely a matter of how long Australia is willing to have a border quarantine system in place (which comes with all kinds of costs due to reduced international travel). There's no epidemiological reason the virus can't be suppressed and kept out of a given region. The only remaining question is how soon we expect a vaccine such that this isolation is worth it in the long run. If a vaccine never comes then it is not a viable strategy, otherwise, it does seem like a good call. Just want to remind you that I'm writing this from Australia where there is practically no virus in the community and are freedoms are increasing rather than decreasing. I don't expect there'll be widespread COVID in Australia ever again, as we've gotten quite good at suppressing small outbreaks now.