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I don't really have a dog in the fight, but it's uncontroversial that basic quarantine breaches were what seeded the the June-October outbreak in Melbourne. Sto

I don't really have a dog in the fight, but it's uncontroversial that basic quarantine breaches were what seeded the the June-October outbreak in Melbourne. Stories of "security having relationships with those in quarantine" make for titillating clickbait articles, but so far little more than rumour has been reported. We'll see what the inquiry report says, but any poor practices in quarantine would have been sufficient to seed the outbreak, whether or not there was any intimate contact. But then it was also poor contact tracing/outbreak management and aged care management that exacerbated things after that. So these things are always multi-faceted. I've been paying close attention to the weather factor since the epidemic spread beyond China in Feb/March. It was notable that the places that had the biggest outbreaks then (Milan, Qom, NYC, London, Madrid, as well as Wuhan itself) had similar weather in those months to what Melbourne has in winter - cool but not freezing, and not too rainy or humid. When I saw that, I immediately felt Melbourne could be more at risk of a serious outbreak than other Australian cities - all of which have either warmer winters and/or lower population density (EDIT: and also more sunlight in some cases, influencing Vitamin D). Of course, if quarantine was better managed it could have been prevented. But I also find it hard to believe that there was not a single serious lapse in any of the hotels in any of the other cities that were running quarantine. When weather is raised, people are quick to point out the warmer regions that have had major outbreaks, like India and Brazil. What these places also have his highly dense populations with many people living/working in close quarters, which obviously also facilitates spread. Nutrition/health may also be a major contributor. As another commenter has pointed out, research has found Victorians to have higher rates of Vitamin D deficiency in winter compared to other states, so weather can play a role in different ways. Clearly this is a highly complex illness with multiple factors that combine in different ways to influence the outcome.

cletus 6y ago
My personal theory is that weather is proximate. The spread is not about population density and social patterns. Take England. I’ve lived in London. There’s a large segment of British social life that revolves around going “down pub”. People will gather at pubs in confined spaces for long periods of time. Those seem like the perfect conditions for community spread. It comes as no surprise to me that England is in another lockdown. Boer I’m sure weather plays a part on that. Nicer weather and people might go on holiday out do things outdoors but once the weather starts to cool? They’re back to the pub. I suspect you’ll see patterns like this in other places. As for your theory in cool climates, well you’re also hitting the climate barrier for high density living and high population centers. There are outliers (eg Moscow) but generally speaking big cities aren’t in Arctic-like climates. I don’t know Melbourne at all but o suspect there’s a predilection for pubs, bars, nightclubs and restaurants and there’ll be some relationship there between colder weather and indoor patronage.
- tomhoward 6y ago
  For what it's worth, pubs/bars/restaurants were already closed when Melbourne's major outbreak happened. The outbreak really took hold when households intermingled in May/June and spread it to each other, then when it got into aged care homes (with staff that worked across multiple facilities) it was all over. I think you're being too specific, pinning it on pubs, etc. It just needs people intermingling in confined spaces of any kind; homes, apartment buildings, workplaces, hospitals/care homes, churches, schools, sporting events, public transportation, and sure pubs/bars too, but any/all of these are conducive to spread.

cletus 6y ago

My personal theory is that weather is proximate. The spread is not about population density and social patterns. Take England. I’ve lived in London. There’s a large segment of British social life that revolves around going “down pub”. People will gather at pubs in confined spaces for long periods of time. Those seem like the perfect conditions for community spread. It comes as no surprise to me that England is in another lockdown. Boer I’m sure weather plays a part on that. Nicer weather and people might go on holiday out do things outdoors but once the weather starts to cool? They’re back to the pub. I suspect you’ll see patterns like this in other places. As for your theory in cool climates, well you’re also hitting the climate barrier for high density living and high population centers. There are outliers (eg Moscow) but generally speaking big cities aren’t in Arctic-like climates. I don’t know Melbourne at all but o suspect there’s a predilection for pubs, bars, nightclubs and restaurants and there’ll be some relationship there between colder weather and indoor patronage.

tomhoward 6y ago
For what it's worth, pubs/bars/restaurants were already closed when Melbourne's major outbreak happened. The outbreak really took hold when households intermingled in May/June and spread it to each other, then when it got into aged care homes (with staff that worked across multiple facilities) it was all over. I think you're being too specific, pinning it on pubs, etc. It just needs people intermingling in confined spaces of any kind; homes, apartment buildings, workplaces, hospitals/care homes, churches, schools, sporting events, public transportation, and sure pubs/bars too, but any/all of these are conducive to spread.