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So they achieved 0 infections without herd immunity via natural means or a vaccine? Isn't that a temporary win? Once a person enters the country with the viru

So they achieved 0 infections without herd immunity via natural means or a vaccine? Isn't that a temporary win? Once a person enters the country with the virus its back on. Are we pattong our selves on the back too soon for these kinds of wins? The modern news cycle is so short sighted that the media makes money off this kind of thing without reporting the full picture.

questionsta 6y ago
It doesn't really seem like it provides any long term benefits, as you point out.
jberryman 6y ago
I think the idea is to suppress numbers via lockdown to the point where contact tracing, along with ubiquitous testing, can detect and squash any local outbreaks before they spread widely, and people can live somewhat normally. Afaict that has been the plan all along in the US as well (in terms of what scientists and infectious disease experts were saying), but most states and the administration gave up on that months ago, e.g. the national "testing czar" declaring the required testing capacity impossible.
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  How is that possible given that the virus spreads so rapidly, asymptomatic people can spread the virus, and the tests aren't 100% accurate and population size is large? By the time an out break is identified hundreds or thousands of people have possibly been infected.
  - doubleunplussed 6y ago
    It's not asymptomatic enough, not infectious enough, for that to be impossible. Multiple Australian states have demonstrated this, as have China, New Zealand, Taiwan and a few others. If every time you get a symptomatic case that tests positive, you isolate contacts and secondary contacts, you will have isolated enough of the asymptomatic cases and false negative tests to get R < 1 and halt the spread of the virus.
    - nickthemagicman 6y ago
      If they go to the grocery store that's hundreds of people they contact potentially. Its odd that you believe that only contacts and secondary contacts are susceptible. With an natural r naught of three and the and the fact that it stays on surfaces for days...it's just a matter of time until another outbreak happens.
      - doubleunplussed 6y ago
        I'm telling you, empirically if you do this, the virus goes away. The proof is in the pudding: we are seeing this strategy work. Those grocery store shoppers might be susceptible, but it turns out that not enough of them get infected for this strategy to fail if it is stuck to for long enough. I'm posting this from Victoria, where we've had zero new COVID cases for three days now. I'm telling you, it works.
        nickthemagicman 6y ago
        It doesn't work ....it DELAYS. Has any virus ever just gone away..... Once society lets down it's guard, if your country hasn't reached herd immunity when the virus returns you're back to lockdown. Perpetual corona whack a mole. There's no realistic way out of this other than herd immunity through a vaccine or natural means. Non vaccine human control of this virus is impossible long term.
        JoeAltmaier 6y ago
        Some places have eradicated it by careful tracking and isolation. It's a virus. It has no reservoir but currently infected people. In fact, if we could all stay isolate for 2 weeks it would be gone from the earth. Of course that's impossible but combination strategies can (have) worked.
        nickthemagicman 6y ago
        Didn't it emerge from a natural reservoir like bats or monkeys? Ebola's reservoir has yet to have been discovered but it's still there.
graeme 6y ago
Plenty of countries have maintained local transmission at zero or near zero thanks to travel restrictions: taiwan, vietnam, new zealand, the Atlantic region of Canada, Thailand The virus isn’t magic. If you have a testing and tracing system in place and act quickly with temporary restrictions you can squash any outbreaks that do make it through. And meanwhile life in those areas is basically normal. I’m in one now. Functionally we’re much more free than people in places with heavy lockdowns and fear.
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  Or just lucky? We know the virus is asymptomatic yet contagious in people for weeks. All it takes is for one low paid person at a checkpoint to have a bad day or be bribed and let an infected person through and you have a pandemic again. Additionally the tests aren't 100% accurate so even with perfect testing of borders someone could slip by given a large enough sample size. I think those countries have either: 1. Reached herd immunity already due to wide spread infections or pre-existing cross immunity(possibly regional exposure to a related corona virus) 2. Living on borrowed time Something doesn't add up. I think you all may be patting yourselves on the back too soon. Or the population actually has herd immunity already due to having been exposed to similar viruses. That would explain why a lot of Asian countries in China's orbit are reaching minimal infections sooner. They may have had Corona or something similar for years.
  - jackvalentine 6y ago
    Any excuse to wave away the possibility that competent government and a society that is willing to take a temporary hit for a bigger goal is possible right?
    - nickthemagicman 6y ago
      First of all, throughout all of recorded history, when has government been competent in caring for it's subjects needs? When it had its foot on the neck of the peasants for a thousand years during Egyptian times or a thousand years during medieval times? The only thing that ended massive repression by the government during the middle ages, was the black plague which killed indiscriminately and allowed redistribution of the wealth and subsequently the enlightenment. What about when gov't started started holocausts, genocides, crusades? When it invaded Vietnam and many of the other frivolous wars the human race has been in? This is not hand wavy this is history. SECOND OF ALL, this is not a temporary hit this is permanently hurting hundreds of millions of peoples lives increasing real poverty around the world destroying small businesses and people's livelihoods. This is rewriting society and culture. This is increasing homelessness, suicide, drug addiction and overdoses and more. If you think this is a temporary hit you and the rest of the people like you are truly in your own bubble.
chillacy 6y ago
The US makes visitors get certain vaccinations before being able to visit https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/vaccinations.html https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrat... Assuming a vaccine comes out, Australia can make US visitors get vaccinated before visiting.
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  When and if a vaccine comes out.

questionsta 6y ago

It doesn't really seem like it provides any long term benefits, as you point out.

jberryman 6y ago

I think the idea is to suppress numbers via lockdown to the point where contact tracing, along with ubiquitous testing, can detect and squash any local outbreaks before they spread widely, and people can live somewhat normally. Afaict that has been the plan all along in the US as well (in terms of what scientists and infectious disease experts were saying), but most states and the administration gave up on that months ago, e.g. the national "testing czar" declaring the required testing capacity impossible.

nickthemagicman 6y ago
How is that possible given that the virus spreads so rapidly, asymptomatic people can spread the virus, and the tests aren't 100% accurate and population size is large? By the time an out break is identified hundreds or thousands of people have possibly been infected.
- doubleunplussed 6y ago
  It's not asymptomatic enough, not infectious enough, for that to be impossible. Multiple Australian states have demonstrated this, as have China, New Zealand, Taiwan and a few others. If every time you get a symptomatic case that tests positive, you isolate contacts and secondary contacts, you will have isolated enough of the asymptomatic cases and false negative tests to get R < 1 and halt the spread of the virus.
  - nickthemagicman 6y ago
    If they go to the grocery store that's hundreds of people they contact potentially. Its odd that you believe that only contacts and secondary contacts are susceptible. With an natural r naught of three and the and the fact that it stays on surfaces for days...it's just a matter of time until another outbreak happens.
    - doubleunplussed 6y ago
      I'm telling you, empirically if you do this, the virus goes away. The proof is in the pudding: we are seeing this strategy work. Those grocery store shoppers might be susceptible, but it turns out that not enough of them get infected for this strategy to fail if it is stuck to for long enough. I'm posting this from Victoria, where we've had zero new COVID cases for three days now. I'm telling you, it works.
      - nickthemagicman 6y ago
        It doesn't work ....it DELAYS. Has any virus ever just gone away..... Once society lets down it's guard, if your country hasn't reached herd immunity when the virus returns you're back to lockdown. Perpetual corona whack a mole. There's no realistic way out of this other than herd immunity through a vaccine or natural means. Non vaccine human control of this virus is impossible long term.
        JoeAltmaier 6y ago
        Some places have eradicated it by careful tracking and isolation. It's a virus. It has no reservoir but currently infected people. In fact, if we could all stay isolate for 2 weeks it would be gone from the earth. Of course that's impossible but combination strategies can (have) worked.
        nickthemagicman 6y ago
        Didn't it emerge from a natural reservoir like bats or monkeys? Ebola's reservoir has yet to have been discovered but it's still there.

graeme 6y ago

Plenty of countries have maintained local transmission at zero or near zero thanks to travel restrictions: taiwan, vietnam, new zealand, the Atlantic region of Canada, Thailand The virus isn’t magic. If you have a testing and tracing system in place and act quickly with temporary restrictions you can squash any outbreaks that do make it through. And meanwhile life in those areas is basically normal. I’m in one now. Functionally we’re much more free than people in places with heavy lockdowns and fear.

nickthemagicman 6y ago
Or just lucky? We know the virus is asymptomatic yet contagious in people for weeks. All it takes is for one low paid person at a checkpoint to have a bad day or be bribed and let an infected person through and you have a pandemic again. Additionally the tests aren't 100% accurate so even with perfect testing of borders someone could slip by given a large enough sample size. I think those countries have either: 1. Reached herd immunity already due to wide spread infections or pre-existing cross immunity(possibly regional exposure to a related corona virus) 2. Living on borrowed time Something doesn't add up. I think you all may be patting yourselves on the back too soon. Or the population actually has herd immunity already due to having been exposed to similar viruses. That would explain why a lot of Asian countries in China's orbit are reaching minimal infections sooner. They may have had Corona or something similar for years.
- jackvalentine 6y ago
  Any excuse to wave away the possibility that competent government and a society that is willing to take a temporary hit for a bigger goal is possible right?
  - nickthemagicman 6y ago
    First of all, throughout all of recorded history, when has government been competent in caring for it's subjects needs? When it had its foot on the neck of the peasants for a thousand years during Egyptian times or a thousand years during medieval times? The only thing that ended massive repression by the government during the middle ages, was the black plague which killed indiscriminately and allowed redistribution of the wealth and subsequently the enlightenment. What about when gov't started started holocausts, genocides, crusades? When it invaded Vietnam and many of the other frivolous wars the human race has been in? This is not hand wavy this is history. SECOND OF ALL, this is not a temporary hit this is permanently hurting hundreds of millions of peoples lives increasing real poverty around the world destroying small businesses and people's livelihoods. This is rewriting society and culture. This is increasing homelessness, suicide, drug addiction and overdoses and more. If you think this is a temporary hit you and the rest of the people like you are truly in your own bubble.

chillacy 6y ago

The US makes visitors get certain vaccinations before being able to visit https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/vaccinations.html https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrat... Assuming a vaccine comes out, Australia can make US visitors get vaccinated before visiting.

nickthemagicman 6y ago
When and if a vaccine comes out.