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Genuine question from a fellow software engineer (throwaway because COVID is such a wedge issue. And for the record I'm currently in Australia and spent the ea

Genuine question from a fellow software engineer (throwaway because COVID is such a wedge issue. And for the record I'm currently in Australia and spent the early part of COVID pandemic in the US so have familiarity with both sides of the equation): Does anyone have a plan to get the world out of COVID? Previous pandemics such as SARS/MERS were contained but had no vaccine, Spanish Flu wasn't contained but there were lasting antibodies (up to 90 years![0]). For COVID all we've been doing is "hoping for a vaccine" which by all accounts[1] will only be 70% effective and will likely require boosters. The world is on a roller coaster of going into and out of lockdown (see Europe this week instituting stay at home orders again) and all the while _there is no plan_ for the world to get past this. So I ask again, does anyone have any kind of plan to get the world back to normal? In Melbourne, Australia, people are wearing masks and "buying time for a vaccine" but when it comes it won't help the at-risk portions of the population. In the US there seems to be no plan at all. Nowhere in the world has anyone come up with a pathway forward to return the human race to a way of life similar to where we were at in 2019. So, given there are so many people in here skilled at decomposing problems and articulating effective solutions, and given there most likely won't be a >70% effective vaccine in the next 2-3 years, what is the way forward for the world? Or are we to be mired in an endless cycle of lockdown/open/lockdown for as far as the eye can see. [0]: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/080817223642.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/080817223642.h... [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/health/covid-vaccines.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/health/covid-vaccines.htm...

azakai 6y ago
Even with a vaccine, I'd expect the world to be different than a year ago. There will be long-term changes. Much of Asia went through such changes after SARS, so the world has experience with this. But we can get to something very close to normal, with differences from before. More mask-wearing, more government powers to do contact tracing, more health checks on borders and other travel limitations, more remote work, etc. So it might not be the same "normal" as before, and some of those things will be unpleasant, but we can live with them (and some will have other benefits, like remote work and a decrease in flights will help against climate change). And specifically I think you're downplaying a vaccine. Even a 70% effective one would make a huge difference in how the virus spreads, potentially decreasing R below 1 even in Europe and the US and other hard-hit areas.
cblconfederate 6y ago
The west should have given a chance to complete containment. 2-3 weeks of stopped flights would have cost less. But it wasn't even seen as a possibility. Probably that ship has sailed for COVID-19, but it should be considered for COVID-21 etc, the virus hasn't stopped mutating.
Izkata 6y ago
> In the US there seems to be no plan at all. The response is handled at the state level, not the federal level (though it can make recommendations). Most states have reopened or are planning to. Others, like mine, have in their plan that they won't completely reopen until there is a vaccine (and it's looking likely we'll be re-locking-down soon). Whether people return to normal activity after restrictions are removed is its own question. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-ma...

azakai 6y ago

Even with a vaccine, I'd expect the world to be different than a year ago. There will be long-term changes. Much of Asia went through such changes after SARS, so the world has experience with this. But we can get to something very close to normal, with differences from before. More mask-wearing, more government powers to do contact tracing, more health checks on borders and other travel limitations, more remote work, etc. So it might not be the same "normal" as before, and some of those things will be unpleasant, but we can live with them (and some will have other benefits, like remote work and a decrease in flights will help against climate change). And specifically I think you're downplaying a vaccine. Even a 70% effective one would make a huge difference in how the virus spreads, potentially decreasing R below 1 even in Europe and the US and other hard-hit areas.

cblconfederate 6y ago

The west should have given a chance to complete containment. 2-3 weeks of stopped flights would have cost less. But it wasn't even seen as a possibility. Probably that ship has sailed for COVID-19, but it should be considered for COVID-21 etc, the virus hasn't stopped mutating.

Izkata 6y ago

> In the US there seems to be no plan at all. The response is handled at the state level, not the federal level (though it can make recommendations). Most states have reopened or are planning to. Others, like mine, have in their plan that they won't completely reopen until there is a vaccine (and it's looking likely we'll be re-locking-down soon). Whether people return to normal activity after restrictions are removed is its own question. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-ma...