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Another thing that's helping Australia is that they're heading into summer. Normalized by population the worst non-tiny (10M+) countries to be right now seem t

by m0zg 6y ago

Another thing that's helping Australia is that they're heading into summer. Normalized by population the worst non-tiny (10M+) countries to be right now seem to be France, Italy, Belgium and Poland. And it'd be even worse in France, Italy and Poland in terms of new cases if they had the kind of testing throughput the US has been able to muster (1.24M tests a day). Belgium has comparable normalized test throughput. As far as cases, new cases = positivity * throughput. The higher the throughput, the more cases you are going to get.

Svip 6y ago
Only Belgium of those seems to rank worse than USA for cases/pop. Missing from your list seems to be Israel and Czech Republic (unless your limit for non-tiny country is 11 million). But even below USA, before we get to France, Italy or Poland; Peru, Spain, Chile, Brazil, Argentina and Colombia ranks in before. And most of these countries are testing at lower rates than France.
- m0zg 6y ago
  That's only if you fail at basic arithmetics. All of them are worse than the US. Scaled up to US population, France would have 190K new cases per day. Italy - 168K. Poland - 185K. And so on and so forth down the list.
  - Svip 6y ago
    That wasn't particularly clear from your 'worst non-tiny countries' (which out of context just sounds mean-spirited). So you meant in terms of new cases, not total cases?
    - m0zg 6y ago
      Yes, since the original article is about new cases, not totals per se. Normalized totals will be the same everywhere - everyone will get it eventually.
      - lostlogin 6y ago
        This may turn out to be true but is far from clear.
- anoncake 6y ago
  Do you mean infections/pop? Cases/pop is irrelevant, just like the CFR is.
fyfy18 6y ago
On a side note are there any sites that lists country level data about cases per day, normalised to population density?
- bobnamob 6y ago
  Raw population density can be misleading. Australia for example has a 25mill population at ~3people per km2. This is effectively worthless as a measure as ~95% of the country's population lives in major cities with population density of 4k-8k per km2.
- m0zg 6y ago
  Not that I know of. The stats are designed to be maximally impenetrable and misleading, and I'm not entirely sure why. Basically the stats that matter are: hospitalizations, ICU bed utilization, and excess deaths. Everything else is bullshit. Yet you won't find any of these stats for most countries, certainly not in an easy to digest form.
- Siira 6y ago
  https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/ https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/
JimTheMan 6y ago
I just came out of months of hard lockdown in Melbourne. Everyone wants to downplay our results. But we went hard and obeyed the rules. I really do think we acted exceptionally as the public. I see what other places with outbreaks are doing, and it seems very lax.
- m0zg 6y ago
  You've only postponed the inevitable though. Virus is gonna virus - it's not going anywhere, ever. I'm not downplaying. I really hope you've used this time to prepare and didn't just sit on your behind hoping it'd go away.
  - markdown 6y ago
    > You've only postponed the inevitable though. You mean "only" given most people another year or two with their elderly?
    - shard972 6y ago
      Some lost the chance during the lockdown mate
  - L-four 6y ago
    It's not going away, we are actively getting rid of it.
    - m0zg 6y ago
      > getting rid of it No you aren't. There's no "getting rid of it". Spanish Flu (!) is still with us. It just kinda fizzled out after just about everyone got it over the course of 2+ years, but the virus still endemic, over a hundred years later.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
    - 6y ago

by m0zg 6y ago

Svip 6y ago

Only Belgium of those seems to rank worse than USA for cases/pop. Missing from your list seems to be Israel and Czech Republic (unless your limit for non-tiny country is 11 million). But even below USA, before we get to France, Italy or Poland; Peru, Spain, Chile, Brazil, Argentina and Colombia ranks in before. And most of these countries are testing at lower rates than France.

m0zg 6y ago
That's only if you fail at basic arithmetics. All of them are worse than the US. Scaled up to US population, France would have 190K new cases per day. Italy - 168K. Poland - 185K. And so on and so forth down the list.
- Svip 6y ago
  That wasn't particularly clear from your 'worst non-tiny countries' (which out of context just sounds mean-spirited). So you meant in terms of new cases, not total cases?
  - m0zg 6y ago
    Yes, since the original article is about new cases, not totals per se. Normalized totals will be the same everywhere - everyone will get it eventually.
    - lostlogin 6y ago
      This may turn out to be true but is far from clear.
anoncake 6y ago
Do you mean infections/pop? Cases/pop is irrelevant, just like the CFR is.

fyfy18 6y ago

On a side note are there any sites that lists country level data about cases per day, normalised to population density?

bobnamob 6y ago
Raw population density can be misleading. Australia for example has a 25mill population at ~3people per km2. This is effectively worthless as a measure as ~95% of the country's population lives in major cities with population density of 4k-8k per km2.
m0zg 6y ago
Not that I know of. The stats are designed to be maximally impenetrable and misleading, and I'm not entirely sure why. Basically the stats that matter are: hospitalizations, ICU bed utilization, and excess deaths. Everything else is bullshit. Yet you won't find any of these stats for most countries, certainly not in an easy to digest form.
Siira 6y ago
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/ https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/

JimTheMan 6y ago

I just came out of months of hard lockdown in Melbourne. Everyone wants to downplay our results. But we went hard and obeyed the rules. I really do think we acted exceptionally as the public. I see what other places with outbreaks are doing, and it seems very lax.

m0zg 6y ago
You've only postponed the inevitable though. Virus is gonna virus - it's not going anywhere, ever. I'm not downplaying. I really hope you've used this time to prepare and didn't just sit on your behind hoping it'd go away.
- markdown 6y ago
  > You've only postponed the inevitable though. You mean "only" given most people another year or two with their elderly?
  - shard972 6y ago
    Some lost the chance during the lockdown mate
- L-four 6y ago
  It's not going away, we are actively getting rid of it.
  - m0zg 6y ago
    > getting rid of it No you aren't. There's no "getting rid of it". Spanish Flu (!) is still with us. It just kinda fizzled out after just about everyone got it over the course of 2+ years, but the virus still endemic, over a hundred years later.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - 6y ago