2 ms·

Battery prices (for different battery technologies) are currently in free fall, and the market is booming, so we are 100% sure to see important economy of scale

Battery prices (for different battery technologies) are currently in free fall, and the market is booming, so we are 100% sure to see important economy of scale there. This in currently not the case at all of SMR... When it comes to technology at pilot scale, price and capacity improvement may turn out to never be realized... But there are dozens of promising tech, so it seems unlikely that all tech will "fail"... and SMR exhibit higer level of risk cause it is even not at the pilot scale project, and it is mostly one technology (with 2 or 3 varieties) And there are many more tech at the lab stage And there is also thermal storage, with many proven and cheap technology, and many different innovation at different stage in the pipe And there are all the innovation to reduce the intermittence and help manage it And there are all the innovation and intervention to allow to make energy demand more flexible

evgen 6y ago
SMR is based upon well-known technology that we have spent decades working on and improving. Other than pumped hydro and batteries there is no potential grid-scale energy storage mechanism that exists beyond desktop models and toy pilots. Battery prices are dropping but the easy low-hanging fruit has been plucked so now the rate of price decline is dropping -- 83% last decade but only 33% predicted over next five years. Production is also a long way off from where it would need to be. There are a couple of GWh plants coming online, but that is still only a fraction of what is needed if battery is going to scale up to handle grid storage. Lots of hand-waving examples you have there, very little in production. A more likely long-term outcome will be to push the storage burden on to the renewable production plants -- only accept power from a producer at a rate they can provide over the next 24 hours with the grid only needing a small surge capacity built into it to smooth out demand spikes.
- skitout 6y ago
  SMR are not even at the toy pilots stage. We know the tech and we know it can work, but we don't when, what investment is required and if it will be competitive. A lot of uncertainty, but one tech only (with few different variations). There are dozens of storage tech with the same or lower uncertainty level... So dozens more chances a tech will work... About storage tech working now, you forgot possibly the most used right know and the cheapest one: thermal storage (giving up to 9,000MW to the French grid for example!). With a huge and cheap potential and mature cheap tech.

evgen 6y ago

SMR is based upon well-known technology that we have spent decades working on and improving. Other than pumped hydro and batteries there is no potential grid-scale energy storage mechanism that exists beyond desktop models and toy pilots. Battery prices are dropping but the easy low-hanging fruit has been plucked so now the rate of price decline is dropping -- 83% last decade but only 33% predicted over next five years. Production is also a long way off from where it would need to be. There are a couple of GWh plants coming online, but that is still only a fraction of what is needed if battery is going to scale up to handle grid storage. Lots of hand-waving examples you have there, very little in production. A more likely long-term outcome will be to push the storage burden on to the renewable production plants -- only accept power from a producer at a rate they can provide over the next 24 hours with the grid only needing a small surge capacity built into it to smooth out demand spikes.

skitout 6y ago
SMR are not even at the toy pilots stage. We know the tech and we know it can work, but we don't when, what investment is required and if it will be competitive. A lot of uncertainty, but one tech only (with few different variations). There are dozens of storage tech with the same or lower uncertainty level... So dozens more chances a tech will work... About storage tech working now, you forgot possibly the most used right know and the cheapest one: thermal storage (giving up to 9,000MW to the French grid for example!). With a huge and cheap potential and mature cheap tech.