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Hate to say it but I think you’re in the minority with that opinion. Reaction from most people has been “woah”. Also, there is no moving fast and breaking thin

Hate to say it but I think you’re in the minority with that opinion. Reaction from most people has been “woah”. Also, there is no moving fast and breaking things here in real terms. Drivers are and have to pay attention while driving, and Tesla is strictly monitoring this with beta. You also specifically have to opt-in to beta software. 99% of Tesla owners do not have this functionality.

dontcarethrow2 6y ago
I think we are mainly silenced by the hype folks who can't not tell the rest of the internet about their excitement. I'd like to think OP's opinion is the majority, hard to tell on a startup forum where most folks are hodling TSLA.
- Smaug123 6y ago
  I would be astonished if a majority of people on HN have Tesla stock, for what it's worth.
  - OJFord 6y ago
    Would you only be astonished if they directly hold it, or also if it's via a fund or three? (I think you're probably right they don't, HN international and diverse enough, but I wouldn't be astonished.)
    - Smaug123 6y ago
      I meant "directly hold" (since I intended to reply to the parent's comment about "hodling").
- beowulfey 6y ago
  I would guess that most people on here are cautiously optimistic. Given the progress that has been made over the past decade on all things AI my priors are telling me this will eventually work. Note that it doesn’t mean I love it; I just expect that they will figure it out.
epistasis 6y ago
This is exactly how tech demos for all sorts of AI have gone for decades: initial impression is "wow, I can't believe it's doing so well!" But the positive impression quickly disipates as there's real world use of the product. Tech demos have a way of setting good impressions that are not realistic. I have a feeling that's exactly what is going on right now, but a few more close calls with crashes and the shine wears off.
- ethbr0 6y ago
  Ironically, deep learning might finally be the solution to this, in a convoluted way. Previous AI systems generally fell over when they hit the final 2% of real world scenarios, unable to cope with the explosion of complexity. In contrast, modern AI finally provide a toolkit for "last mile AI" (proverbially speaking), by allowing incorporation of those scenarios without breaking the entire previous model.
  - admax88q 6y ago
    All deep learning implementations to date fail on the last 2% of real world cases. Why would deep learning be the solution for its own shortcomings?
    - ethbr0 6y ago
      Failing on the last 2% (or whatever small number we want to set) isn't a shortcoming of deep learning: it's a shortcoming of all prior knowledge systems. Humans included. And the barrier to surpassing that problem has been hardware (now approaching solving) and calendar- & person-time. The problem with 1970s AI (ingnoring hardware) isn't that we couldn't build useful AI, but that we couldn't afford to build useful AI in most domains. Calendar time costs money. People time costs money. Deep learning and derivates finally provide a solution where we can substitute machine time and data volume for calendar and people time. As a result, we can afford to do things in domains we couldn't before.
      - klyrs 6y ago
cblconfederate 6y ago
You cant go "woah" for 10 years. SD cars are not delivering. One more death and people will be calling to burn them. One should do sentiment analysis on these discussions threads over the years to see how the attitudes have changed. A much less dangerous version of this was the VR hype train
- timmytokyo 6y ago
  Tesla's unregulated and (some might say) reckless roll-out of self-driving technology could indeed be the biggest threat to the technology's realization. As you point out, all it will take is a few fatalities for public opinion to harden against self-driving, and laws will start banning or severely restricting it. Rather than being wowed by Tesla's gung-ho approach, boosters of self-driving technology should be angered by it.
  - dcow 6y ago
    I don’t buy the FUD. By all measures driver assist programs make the road safer. These cars are not out on the streets massacring people like human drivers are. So meh.
    - epistasis 6y ago
      What measure are you talking about here? Has Tesla published any stats about FSD? The other stats in this thread make it sound like Tesla is not even the same league as other attempts at driving.
      - jiofih 6y ago
        Yes, they have, lots of public data. The latest show that autopilot on is just slightly better than a human re. safety (but Teslas overall are about 10x safer than the average car already).
        epistasis 6y ago
        But we are talking about FSD, not autopilot, a very different beast.

dontcarethrow2 6y ago

I think we are mainly silenced by the hype folks who can't not tell the rest of the internet about their excitement. I'd like to think OP's opinion is the majority, hard to tell on a startup forum where most folks are hodling TSLA.

Smaug123 6y ago
I would be astonished if a majority of people on HN have Tesla stock, for what it's worth.
- OJFord 6y ago
  Would you only be astonished if they directly hold it, or also if it's via a fund or three? (I think you're probably right they don't, HN international and diverse enough, but I wouldn't be astonished.)
  - Smaug123 6y ago
    I meant "directly hold" (since I intended to reply to the parent's comment about "hodling").
beowulfey 6y ago
I would guess that most people on here are cautiously optimistic. Given the progress that has been made over the past decade on all things AI my priors are telling me this will eventually work. Note that it doesn’t mean I love it; I just expect that they will figure it out.

epistasis 6y ago

This is exactly how tech demos for all sorts of AI have gone for decades: initial impression is "wow, I can't believe it's doing so well!" But the positive impression quickly disipates as there's real world use of the product. Tech demos have a way of setting good impressions that are not realistic. I have a feeling that's exactly what is going on right now, but a few more close calls with crashes and the shine wears off.

ethbr0 6y ago
Ironically, deep learning might finally be the solution to this, in a convoluted way. Previous AI systems generally fell over when they hit the final 2% of real world scenarios, unable to cope with the explosion of complexity. In contrast, modern AI finally provide a toolkit for "last mile AI" (proverbially speaking), by allowing incorporation of those scenarios without breaking the entire previous model.
- admax88q 6y ago
  All deep learning implementations to date fail on the last 2% of real world cases. Why would deep learning be the solution for its own shortcomings?
  - ethbr0 6y ago
    Failing on the last 2% (or whatever small number we want to set) isn't a shortcoming of deep learning: it's a shortcoming of all prior knowledge systems. Humans included. And the barrier to surpassing that problem has been hardware (now approaching solving) and calendar- & person-time. The problem with 1970s AI (ingnoring hardware) isn't that we couldn't build useful AI, but that we couldn't afford to build useful AI in most domains. Calendar time costs money. People time costs money. Deep learning and derivates finally provide a solution where we can substitute machine time and data volume for calendar and people time. As a result, we can afford to do things in domains we couldn't before.
    - klyrs 6y ago

cblconfederate 6y ago

You cant go "woah" for 10 years. SD cars are not delivering. One more death and people will be calling to burn them. One should do sentiment analysis on these discussions threads over the years to see how the attitudes have changed. A much less dangerous version of this was the VR hype train

timmytokyo 6y ago
Tesla's unregulated and (some might say) reckless roll-out of self-driving technology could indeed be the biggest threat to the technology's realization. As you point out, all it will take is a few fatalities for public opinion to harden against self-driving, and laws will start banning or severely restricting it. Rather than being wowed by Tesla's gung-ho approach, boosters of self-driving technology should be angered by it.
- dcow 6y ago
  I don’t buy the FUD. By all measures driver assist programs make the road safer. These cars are not out on the streets massacring people like human drivers are. So meh.
  - epistasis 6y ago
    What measure are you talking about here? Has Tesla published any stats about FSD? The other stats in this thread make it sound like Tesla is not even the same league as other attempts at driving.
    - jiofih 6y ago
      Yes, they have, lots of public data. The latest show that autopilot on is just slightly better than a human re. safety (but Teslas overall are about 10x safer than the average car already).
      - epistasis 6y ago
        But we are talking about FSD, not autopilot, a very different beast.