I'd be a little careful with that chart. I was working with the raw data provided on this page: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm htt

I'd be a little careful with that chart. I was working with the raw data provided on this page: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm, and the CDC warns that even the data going back into August may be incomplete. I'd assume this data comes with the same caveat, so we may well see these numbers increase the reporting comes in. Edit: from the asterisk on the page you linked: "*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death."