> those predictions seem like they could be done by throwing darts at a dart board They are. They're made by throwing 40,000 darts at a dart board. 40,000 simu

> those predictions seem like they could be done by throwing darts at a dart board They are. They're made by throwing 40,000 darts at a dart board. 40,000 simulations of the election based on the polls, historical trends, demographics, and more. The real threat, the real reason why the 2016 election was mostly mis-called, is when the polls themselves make mistakes in a common way. In 2016 it was education that wasn't factored strongly enough. The models can be run on past elections and polling + data before those elections. That's how the develop the models.