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Nate Silver and 538 gave Trump a 28% chance of winning on Election night in 2016. Nobody else gave him even close to that kind of probability. Sam Wang, conside
by mabbo 6y ago
Nate Silver and 538 gave Trump a 28% chance of winning on Election night in 2016. Nobody else gave him even close to that kind of probability. Sam Wang, considered another very good polling expert said he would eat a bug if Trump won, giving him less than 1% of a chance (and he DID[0]).
And here is the New Atlantic saying not to trust Nate Silver? Give me a break.
Statistical models give probabilities, not certainties.
[0]https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/12/politics/pollster-eats-bug-after-donald-trump-win/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/12/politics/pollster-eats-bug-af...
- bassman9000 6y agohttps://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/... 89% chance to Biden. We'll see in a few days.