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It's pretty lame to paste an image of the NY Time's 82% chance of Clinton winning the election in an article that calls out Nate by name. Nate gave Clinton like

It's pretty lame to paste an image of the NY Time's 82% chance of Clinton winning the election in an article that calls out Nate by name. Nate gave Clinton like a 70% chance. Can model building predict human behavior? It's fuzzier than the hard sciences, but not that much fuzzier. And if you do believe it's impossible to model human behavior, you have to throw out vast swaths of knowledge and areas of study: there goes sociology, anthropology, economics, psychology, epidemiology...

deleted 6y ago
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xlm1717 6y ago
Economics is being thrown out in favor of Modern Monetary Theory. Psychology has a reproducibility crisis. Epidemiology... isn't doing so well. And I have no problem throwing out sociology and anthropology.
- scarmig 6y ago
  All of these wildly miss the point. > Economics is being thrown out in favor of Modern Monetary Theory. MMT is many things, but it's most definitely not a rejection of the idea that human behavior can be modeled.
- dwaltrip 6y ago
  Don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater.