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Phonenix doesn't get much snow / ice / crazy fog / crazy rain. The roads are wide. The amount of traffic is low compared to, say, NYC or LA. So yeah, they are

Phonenix doesn't get much snow / ice / crazy fog / crazy rain. The roads are wide. The amount of traffic is low compared to, say, NYC or LA. So yeah, they are not near human level yet.

maxerickson 6y ago
I think there's a solid chance that a 'near human capable' driving system will handle slippery roads better than the human average. The system will be in a modern vehicle with traction control and likely make conservative judgments about road condition.
- adrianmonk 6y ago
  There might also be differences in how accurately a human or machine can model which maneuvers can/can't be done without losing traction. I could see this going either way. Maybe a human will be able to identify spots (like puddles) where traction will be especially bad, but a machine can do a detailed physics simulation of a maneuver before trying it. In whatever way a machine does adjust its behavior for slippery roads, it will probably be more consistent at it than a human. Humans have to deal with force of habit, so for example they may momentarily forget that they can't brake hard or they shouldn't take that turn at a familiar intersection at the same speed as yesterday.
- notatoad 6y ago
  also poor visibility. humans need to rely on their eyes, a car with a bunch of lidar sensors is absolutely going to outperform us in fog, blowing snow, or heavy rain.
bryanlarsen 6y ago
I suspect that Waymo will do better compared to a human outside of Phoenix than inside it. The hardest thing that Waymo will have to do is to interact with humans behaving oddly. Phoenix has those, just not as many as NYC/LA/SF. But one thing computers do exceedingly well is scale. Dealing with one strange human is very hard for a computer, but dealing with two or more of them is very similar. Snow / ice / rain on the roads means changing underlying models, behaving more cautiously. Computers can switch modalities much quicker/easier than humans. Fog and other visibility problems are sensor issues. Humans are stuck with the old Mark 1 eyeball, but self driving cars have a mix of sensors. These sensors may currently be worse than eyeballs in fog, but may not be in the future. Even given those advantages, you still start in an easy location. Going from 0 to 1 is really hard, give yourself all the advantages you can. But going from 1 to N is a lot easier.
- foota 6y ago
  Fwiw your conclusion is not really supported by the rest of your statement. Just because scaling from 1 to n is easy doesn't make scaling from zero to 1 feasible. And even if it is (feasible) there's no guarantee they'll be able to do it soon.
  - bryanlarsen 6y ago
    I'm having trouble figuring out how you're disagreeing with me, it sounds like you agree with me, that 0 to 1 is the hardest part.

Phonenix doesn't get much snow / ice / crazy fog / crazy rain. The roads are wide. The amount of traffic is low compared to, say, NYC or LA. So yeah, they are not near human level yet.

maxerickson 6y ago

I think there's a solid chance that a 'near human capable' driving system will handle slippery roads better than the human average. The system will be in a modern vehicle with traction control and likely make conservative judgments about road condition.

adrianmonk 6y ago
There might also be differences in how accurately a human or machine can model which maneuvers can/can't be done without losing traction. I could see this going either way. Maybe a human will be able to identify spots (like puddles) where traction will be especially bad, but a machine can do a detailed physics simulation of a maneuver before trying it. In whatever way a machine does adjust its behavior for slippery roads, it will probably be more consistent at it than a human. Humans have to deal with force of habit, so for example they may momentarily forget that they can't brake hard or they shouldn't take that turn at a familiar intersection at the same speed as yesterday.
notatoad 6y ago
also poor visibility. humans need to rely on their eyes, a car with a bunch of lidar sensors is absolutely going to outperform us in fog, blowing snow, or heavy rain.

bryanlarsen 6y ago

I suspect that Waymo will do better compared to a human outside of Phoenix than inside it. The hardest thing that Waymo will have to do is to interact with humans behaving oddly. Phoenix has those, just not as many as NYC/LA/SF. But one thing computers do exceedingly well is scale. Dealing with one strange human is very hard for a computer, but dealing with two or more of them is very similar. Snow / ice / rain on the roads means changing underlying models, behaving more cautiously. Computers can switch modalities much quicker/easier than humans. Fog and other visibility problems are sensor issues. Humans are stuck with the old Mark 1 eyeball, but self driving cars have a mix of sensors. These sensors may currently be worse than eyeballs in fog, but may not be in the future. Even given those advantages, you still start in an easy location. Going from 0 to 1 is really hard, give yourself all the advantages you can. But going from 1 to N is a lot easier.

foota 6y ago
Fwiw your conclusion is not really supported by the rest of your statement. Just because scaling from 1 to n is easy doesn't make scaling from zero to 1 feasible. And even if it is (feasible) there's no guarantee they'll be able to do it soon.
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  I'm having trouble figuring out how you're disagreeing with me, it sounds like you agree with me, that 0 to 1 is the hardest part.