6 ms·

Reading the graph posted, you may think we stopped tracking the flu. However, it's not clear yet whether that is the case, and the charts from 2019 show that.

by fny 6y ago

Reading the graph posted, you may think we stopped tracking the flu. However, it's not clear yet whether that is the case, and the charts from 2019 show that. Here are the charts for 2019 and 2020 in the US*: https://imgur.com/a/HvBJoj2 https://imgur.com/a/HvBJoj2 (Note the axes are on different time scales unfortunately). They are very similar with two major exceptions. 1. Week 13, about March 23rd, there is a dip lower, presumably due to the lock downs. 2. There was no activity throughout this spring and summer, but that's typically the case as the 2019 chart shows. 2020 is even lower (virtually no cases). While this could be due to lack of reporting, it could also be due to social distancing and masking. We are currently in Week 44 of 2020. During week 44 of 2019 cases began to uptick slightly and then increased parabolically into the winter. We should expect the same in 2020. And this will be how we really know if flu testing is suppressed. Anyone claiming anything otherwise is speculating. Anecdotally, my sister caught a bug recently that tested negative for COVID, and the physician suspected the flu. However, he couldn't test for flu since there was no capacity for flu testing. Source: https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=7 https://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=7

neogodless 6y ago
Note the different horizontal axes been the graphs. The top one goes back up after week 43/44 which is about where the bottom one ends. I know your text describes this but it's easy to look at the graphs and miss!
- ddoran 6y ago
  I was about to post the same but both horizontal and vertical axes are different scales.
- fny 6y ago
  I just updated my comment to clarify too. Unfortunately, the WHO only plots data for weeks that have occurred, so there's no way to extend match the two axes.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
dustinmoris 6y ago
The 2019 graph shows nicely that the 2019/2020 flu seasons saw a lot of Influenza B cases, which was not as much present in 2018/2019. AFAIK Influenza B has always been the more severe and deadly type of the flu and to skeptics like myself this underlines even more the suspicion that we have falsly attributed a lot of deaths in our last Winter to COVID when it might have been the flu in many cases. Previous studies have already proven that when a patient had tested positive for the flu and COVID that all these cases have been only counted as COVID deaths. Things like this make it problematic to build trust in the wider population and ask people to follow silly rules when there is so much ground for mistrust in the severity of COVID.
- kolinko 6y ago
  There were virtually no deaths attributed to COVID last winter - everything started in March, past the influenza peak. This winter the number of deaths from COVID will be an order of magnitude higher than the deaths from flu on an average tear. So even if we attributed every sobgle death from flu to covid, it wouldn’t change the overall picture on Covid really.
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    Testing didn't really start until March, so you can't possibly know the answer to that. We're already back to average death levels (maybe even below average if the recent provisional numbers hold up): https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm Click "percent of expected deaths" column to see. We thought Covid was an order of magnitude deadlier than the flu, but it's looking more and more like that's not the case. Covid may have hit a large population of vulnerable people with weak immune systems at once, and is currently becoming less deadly as it spreads among younger, healthier populations. Covid had the element of surprise in the spring, for both immune systems and healthcare systems. Going forward, unless it mutates into some hellish form, it's not likely to continue.
    - sgt101 6y ago
      I hope you are right. But from your link : is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods.
d0mine 6y ago
In short: it is too earlier for 2020 (week 43 is almost nothing in 2019)

by fny 6y ago

neogodless 6y ago

Note the different horizontal axes been the graphs. The top one goes back up after week 43/44 which is about where the bottom one ends. I know your text describes this but it's easy to look at the graphs and miss!

ddoran 6y ago
I was about to post the same but both horizontal and vertical axes are different scales.
fny 6y ago
I just updated my comment to clarify too. Unfortunately, the WHO only plots data for weeks that have occurred, so there's no way to extend match the two axes.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

dustinmoris 6y ago

The 2019 graph shows nicely that the 2019/2020 flu seasons saw a lot of Influenza B cases, which was not as much present in 2018/2019. AFAIK Influenza B has always been the more severe and deadly type of the flu and to skeptics like myself this underlines even more the suspicion that we have falsly attributed a lot of deaths in our last Winter to COVID when it might have been the flu in many cases. Previous studies have already proven that when a patient had tested positive for the flu and COVID that all these cases have been only counted as COVID deaths. Things like this make it problematic to build trust in the wider population and ask people to follow silly rules when there is so much ground for mistrust in the severity of COVID.

kolinko 6y ago
There were virtually no deaths attributed to COVID last winter - everything started in March, past the influenza peak. This winter the number of deaths from COVID will be an order of magnitude higher than the deaths from flu on an average tear. So even if we attributed every sobgle death from flu to covid, it wouldn’t change the overall picture on Covid really.
- chrisco255 6y ago
  Testing didn't really start until March, so you can't possibly know the answer to that. We're already back to average death levels (maybe even below average if the recent provisional numbers hold up): https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm Click "percent of expected deaths" column to see. We thought Covid was an order of magnitude deadlier than the flu, but it's looking more and more like that's not the case. Covid may have hit a large population of vulnerable people with weak immune systems at once, and is currently becoming less deadly as it spreads among younger, healthier populations. Covid had the element of surprise in the spring, for both immune systems and healthcare systems. Going forward, unless it mutates into some hellish form, it's not likely to continue.
  - sgt101 6y ago
    I hope you are right. But from your link : is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods.

d0mine 6y ago

In short: it is too earlier for 2020 (week 43 is almost nothing in 2019)