I don't see why people are giving me so much flak on this, the OP made a bold, unintuitive, and hard to believe claim - and people are saying I should be more g

I don't see why people are giving me so much flak on this, the OP made a bold, unintuitive, and hard to believe claim - and people are saying I should be more gullible? More trusting of authority? Less skeptical? As it turns out it's moot. The claim was the high end of a range starting at 5M. If your range is that wide you really have no business calling it an estimate. It's a WAG - a wild ass guess. I was right to be skeptical. They may as well have just said we don't know how bad it's going to be, but it won't be good. And leave it there.