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I'm surprised they're selling any; I don't regret buying my Air in March, but I'd still be holding off if I had known ARM models were coming soon.

by rconti 6y ago

AnthonyMouse 6y ago
That's why they're selling now. Get one that can still run the existing installed base of applications without translation and natively virtualize x64 Windows and Linux. Let the other guy suffer Rosetta and transition bugs. Then the kinks will have been worked out by the time you want to replace the one you just bought.
- rconti 6y ago
  The conventional wisdom is this is why products aren't typically pre-announced, and why Apple says things like "transition will occur over a period of 2 years" and then actually happens in 6 months, like the Intel transition. That the new machines will be significantly faster. This commentary was all over every Intel->ARM thread, until today, when suddenly every comment seemed to be that people were obviously buying Intel Macs to avoid having to buy ARM. Which doesn't really make sense -- you can always buy an Intel Mac up to and including the day the ARM machines drop. Probably at a steep discount, too. Probably some time after the ARM machines come out. There's no hurry.
  - AnthonyMouse 6y ago
    > you can always buy an Intel Mac up to and including the day the ARM machines drop. You can, but when you know they're about to switch architectures, it's a pretty good guess that what they're not about to do is announce a whole new slate of devices using the old architecture. So even if they still sell them in two years, they'll probably still be the same specs, and without a price cut so as to discourage people from buying the existing one instead of the new one. So if you know you're going to buy the existing one, there's little reason to wait. Especially when they have a record of claiming they'll sell them for two years and then stopping after six months.
    - rconti 6y ago
      Fair. Maybe that's what kept me from shedding a tear of my recent top-o'-the-line Air purchase. That, or the knowledge that, after 9 years with the old one, It Was Time, one way or the other.
mleo 6y ago
Most consumers probably don't know much about the transition to Apple Silicon. However, this quarter included back-to-school timing and with kids still doing school from home, there were probably a larger number of parents that bought computers for kids. Anecdotally, 2 of our kids used an 2013 11" MacBook Air (old, low RAM) and 2015 15" MacBook Pro (on-loan from employer) in the Spring. When they weren't going back to school, we were in a fortunate position to be able to purchase them 13" MacBook Airs to continue school at home. Other parents probably made due with what they had in the Spring and purchased something over the summer. When I purchased at end of July, there was 2-3 week wait time to get them. I knew that Apple Silicon was coming later this year, but the timing didn't make sense to wait. Back to my first point, most consumers probably are not aware that Apple Silicon is coming or why it matters and could not have made informed choice to buy now vs wait. I predict next year's sales will be flat or lower.
- rconti 6y ago
  Thank you, great point. Totally forgot about the "kids" thing. Even people who aren't buying new explicitly for their kids might be justifying buying themselves a new one so they can hand down the old one :)

I'm surprised they're selling any; I don't regret buying my Air in March, but I'd still be holding off if I had known ARM models were coming soon.

by rconti 6y ago

I'm surprised they're selling any; I don't regret buying my Air in March, but I'd still be holding off if I had known ARM models were coming soon.

AnthonyMouse 6y ago

That's why they're selling now. Get one that can still run the existing installed base of applications without translation and natively virtualize x64 Windows and Linux. Let the other guy suffer Rosetta and transition bugs. Then the kinks will have been worked out by the time you want to replace the one you just bought.

rconti 6y ago
The conventional wisdom is this is why products aren't typically pre-announced, and why Apple says things like "transition will occur over a period of 2 years" and then actually happens in 6 months, like the Intel transition. That the new machines will be significantly faster. This commentary was all over every Intel->ARM thread, until today, when suddenly every comment seemed to be that people were obviously buying Intel Macs to avoid having to buy ARM. Which doesn't really make sense -- you can always buy an Intel Mac up to and including the day the ARM machines drop. Probably at a steep discount, too. Probably some time after the ARM machines come out. There's no hurry.
- AnthonyMouse 6y ago
  > you can always buy an Intel Mac up to and including the day the ARM machines drop. You can, but when you know they're about to switch architectures, it's a pretty good guess that what they're not about to do is announce a whole new slate of devices using the old architecture. So even if they still sell them in two years, they'll probably still be the same specs, and without a price cut so as to discourage people from buying the existing one instead of the new one. So if you know you're going to buy the existing one, there's little reason to wait. Especially when they have a record of claiming they'll sell them for two years and then stopping after six months.
  - rconti 6y ago
    Fair. Maybe that's what kept me from shedding a tear of my recent top-o'-the-line Air purchase. That, or the knowledge that, after 9 years with the old one, It Was Time, one way or the other.

mleo 6y ago

Most consumers probably don't know much about the transition to Apple Silicon. However, this quarter included back-to-school timing and with kids still doing school from home, there were probably a larger number of parents that bought computers for kids. Anecdotally, 2 of our kids used an 2013 11" MacBook Air (old, low RAM) and 2015 15" MacBook Pro (on-loan from employer) in the Spring. When they weren't going back to school, we were in a fortunate position to be able to purchase them 13" MacBook Airs to continue school at home. Other parents probably made due with what they had in the Spring and purchased something over the summer. When I purchased at end of July, there was 2-3 week wait time to get them. I knew that Apple Silicon was coming later this year, but the timing didn't make sense to wait. Back to my first point, most consumers probably are not aware that Apple Silicon is coming or why it matters and could not have made informed choice to buy now vs wait. I predict next year's sales will be flat or lower.

rconti 6y ago
Thank you, great point. Totally forgot about the "kids" thing. Even people who aren't buying new explicitly for their kids might be justifying buying themselves a new one so they can hand down the old one :)