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I agree with you that climate scientists are being too conservative, but I fail to see why that's good. Imagine an aviation engineer being "too conservative" w
by yongjik 6y ago
I agree with you that climate scientists are being too conservative, but I fail to see why that's good.
Imagine an aviation engineer being "too conservative" with potential dangers (i.e., accept too much risk) because if you raise an alarm and it turns out to be not as bad as predicted, you will have cost the company $$$ and hurt your career. Would you call that a good thing?
- CivBase 6y agoFunny enough, I actually am a software engineer for avionics. Those are not reasonable comparisons. Climate change predictions amount to milestones on our slow journey to oblivion. Ideally we want to be spot-on with all our predictions, but being on the "too conservative" side doesn't immediately put human lives at risk.
- jjoonathan 6y agoMy high school science teacher told us all the world economy would collapse in 10 years because the oil would run out. It didn't. My classmates remembered -- and updated their priors accordingly. At this point, it's pretty clear that despite his good intentions he hurt the cause. Fundamental attribution error tempts you into believing that it's OK to lie for a good reason. Others see it differently.
- stripline 6y agoTell your high school science teacher to read The Doomsday Myth. https://www.amazon.com/Doomsday-Myth-Economic-Institution-Publication/dp/081797962X https://www.amazon.com/Doomsday-Myth-Economic-Institution-Pu...