6 ms·

Where are the "alarmist doomsday predictions" that never came true? Climate Change deniers claim that these exist all the time, but I have never seen an actual

Where are the "alarmist doomsday predictions" that never came true? Climate Change deniers claim that these exist all the time, but I have never seen an actual example. Predictions over the last 20-30 years have been almost universally spot-on.

CivBase 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline#Ice-free_summer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline#Ice-fre... > Many scientists have attempted to estimate when the Arctic will be "ice-free". Professor Peter Wadhams of the University of Cambridge is among these scientists; Wadhams in 2014 predicted that by 2020 "summer sea ice to disappear," Wadhams and several others have noted that climate model predictions have been overly conservative regarding sea ice decline. A 2013 paper suggested that models commonly underestimate the solar radiation absorption characteristics of wildfire soot. In 2007, Professor Wieslaw Maslowski from the Naval Postgraduate School, California, predicted removal of summer ice by 2013; subsequently, in 2013, Maslowski predicted 2016 ±3 years.
- anigbrowl 6y ago
  I think you should have included the preceding line explaining that 'ice free' is a synonym for under '1m square km of ice.' Even then the wikipedia article is abstracting away a lot of nuance in the reporting (fortunately easily accessible through the excellent citations). This year the minimum extent is about 2.4m sqkm and the downward trend is steady. If only people would devote half as much energy to debunking denialists as they do scolding 'alarmists'.
simonsarris 6y ago
> Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013' (2007) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm > Warming expert: Only decade left to act in time (2006) https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna14834318 https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna14834318 > (1989) A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. > He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control. https://apnews.com/article/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0 https://apnews.com/article/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- Maarten88 6y ago
  Those articles may still prove to be correct. Several Pacific Island nations (Marshall Islands, Maldives, Tuvalu) are indeed drowning, as predicted. At least to me it seems the greenhouse effect now is out of human control. I do not see mankind preventing it from raising much higher, for years to come, before we'll do anything about it.
  - pstuart 6y ago
    Next week we should should get a better understanding of our path forward. Obliqueness intentional to ward off hate.
  - kortilla 6y ago
    > > Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013' (2007) > Those articles may still prove to be correct.
  - scottlocklin 6y ago
    Your prediction isn't correct if your time estimate is wrong. I bet some Pacific islands will be beneath the ocean some day with probability very close to 1 (I dunno we could get hit by an Asteroid first). Betting they will be last month is a failed prediction. As far as I can tell they're not having any particular problems now they didn't have 50 years ago. I'm happy to entertain evidence to the contrary. The greenhouse effect is totally human controllable. You don't even need to stop using fossil fuels or resort to absurdities like industrial carbon sequestration. Geoengineering used to be a thing; if climatologists believed in their models, they'd be able to come up with a solution that works. Painting Australia white, pumping sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere; whatever. Someone could at least make a suggestion which doesn't involve everyone living in a yurt and eating gruel. One becomes suspicious people whose only solution is the latter are millenarian cultists rather than science minded.
    - jagger27 6y ago
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

CivBase 6y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline#Ice-free_summer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline#Ice-fre... > Many scientists have attempted to estimate when the Arctic will be "ice-free". Professor Peter Wadhams of the University of Cambridge is among these scientists; Wadhams in 2014 predicted that by 2020 "summer sea ice to disappear," Wadhams and several others have noted that climate model predictions have been overly conservative regarding sea ice decline. A 2013 paper suggested that models commonly underestimate the solar radiation absorption characteristics of wildfire soot. In 2007, Professor Wieslaw Maslowski from the Naval Postgraduate School, California, predicted removal of summer ice by 2013; subsequently, in 2013, Maslowski predicted 2016 ±3 years.

anigbrowl 6y ago
I think you should have included the preceding line explaining that 'ice free' is a synonym for under '1m square km of ice.' Even then the wikipedia article is abstracting away a lot of nuance in the reporting (fortunately easily accessible through the excellent citations). This year the minimum extent is about 2.4m sqkm and the downward trend is steady. If only people would devote half as much energy to debunking denialists as they do scolding 'alarmists'.

simonsarris 6y ago

> Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013' (2007) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm > Warming expert: Only decade left to act in time (2006) https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna14834318 https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna14834318 > (1989) A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. > He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control. https://apnews.com/article/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0 https://apnews.com/article/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
Maarten88 6y ago
Those articles may still prove to be correct. Several Pacific Island nations (Marshall Islands, Maldives, Tuvalu) are indeed drowning, as predicted. At least to me it seems the greenhouse effect now is out of human control. I do not see mankind preventing it from raising much higher, for years to come, before we'll do anything about it.
- pstuart 6y ago
  Next week we should should get a better understanding of our path forward. Obliqueness intentional to ward off hate.
- kortilla 6y ago
  > > Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013' (2007) > Those articles may still prove to be correct.
- scottlocklin 6y ago
  Your prediction isn't correct if your time estimate is wrong. I bet some Pacific islands will be beneath the ocean some day with probability very close to 1 (I dunno we could get hit by an Asteroid first). Betting they will be last month is a failed prediction. As far as I can tell they're not having any particular problems now they didn't have 50 years ago. I'm happy to entertain evidence to the contrary. The greenhouse effect is totally human controllable. You don't even need to stop using fossil fuels or resort to absurdities like industrial carbon sequestration. Geoengineering used to be a thing; if climatologists believed in their models, they'd be able to come up with a solution that works. Painting Australia white, pumping sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere; whatever. Someone could at least make a suggestion which doesn't involve everyone living in a yurt and eating gruel. One becomes suspicious people whose only solution is the latter are millenarian cultists rather than science minded.
  - jagger27 6y ago

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]