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What do you think would prevent a self sufficient colony on Mars in a few hundred years? I don't see any fundamental obstacles to it.

by jupp0r 6y ago

Retric 6y ago
Self sufficient requires a manufacturing base to include everything needed to sustain it’s self, including redundancies. Going from zero humans on mars to 100’s of millions is a massive bootstrap problem with minimal incentive for the the people involved or the multiple years worth of earth’s GDP to get to that point. It’s like the “self replicating” 3D printers where they can produce 98% of the structure by weight and approximately 0.001% by complexity. A base that’s producing it’s own food is doable, shipping machines to say build solar panels or a specific chip isn’t a problem. However, even just the effort to figure out a minimal slice of earth’s technology to be self significant is hard. Aka building even a single type of LCD requires a massive number of different components, and the ability to build all the machines to make those components, and machines to make those machines, ... Now realize that’s just for an LCD, manufacturing every type of Medicine is a whole other list. Finally you need to accept everyone on Mars living in relative poverty for generations due to the inefficiencies involved.
- kwhitefoot 6y ago
  Why does it need hundreds of millions of people?
  - Retric 6y ago
    That’s not a requirement, that’s the goal. In theory you could have a self sufficient base with 0 people and AI, or 100,000+ people for long term genetic diversity and an automated wonderland, or ...
  - bryanlarsen 6y ago
    Elon's estimate is that 1 million people are needed for Mars to industrialize sufficiently to become self-sufficient. A good reference is Casey Handmer's blog or book. https://www.amazon.com/How-Industrialize-Mars-Strategy-Self-Sufficiency-ebook/dp/B07GN3BJX3/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&qid=1603994976&refinements=p_27%3ACasey+Handmer&s=books&sr=1-1 https://www.amazon.com/How-Industrialize-Mars-Strategy-Self-... https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2020/08/23/progression-of-space-industrialization/ https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2020/08/23/progression-of...
    - goatlover 6y ago
      1 million in a few centuries seems feasible given the likely advances in technology. Hundreds of millions would require terraforming, which will likely take millennia. But those timescales are relatively short if human civilization persists. Even if Mars does not end up being ideal enough, Venus could be on a longer time scale. The article is short sighted.
- eindiran 6y ago
  > [Y]ou need to accept [that] everyone on Mars [will] live in relative poverty for generations. I think this point is by far the easiest one to address. Historically, there have always been people willing to do dangerous things (ie exploring the Arctic / Antarctica). I don't think you'd have any trouble finding people willing to give up their Earth lifestyle for a chance to explore the "frontier" even with the knowledge that they couldn't come back.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - dmitriid 6y ago
    Those explorers always have the luxury of going back to civilisation after relatively short excursions into the unknown. I doubt many people are willing to live the entirety of their lives in constant danger and constrained resources. And even fewer of those people will have the skills needed to run a complex technological society (and you will need a lot of technology to survive on Mars).
    - FlyMoreRockets 6y ago
      Colonists to the new world of the Americas didn't count on going back.
      - Retric 6y ago
        There was a constant string of boats going back to England and many people did so. What kept people in the America’s was they where better off there than Europe not the inability to leave.
    - deadmetheny 6y ago
      >Those explorers always have the luxury of going back to civilisation after relatively short excursions into the unknown. I doubt many people are willing to live the entirety of their lives in constant danger and constrained resources. Yet a very large majority of North America is descended from people who did exactly that.
- vagrantJin 6y ago
  I agree with you that complexity is a thing and not quite a simple hurdle but once the gears start turning I believe we have enough smart people among humanity as a whole to figure something out. I also think you take the idea of poverty way too seriously. People adapt to their environment remarkably quickly and the idea of poverty and wealth with it.
- m4rtink 6y ago
  Modern automated production techniques and additive manufacturing can help reduce this dependency a lot. You can also do some compromises - the stuff might be less elegant than cutting-edge Earth product, but it will work. Also people now have much better mental picture of the manufacturing tech tree than ever before thanks to Factorio. ;-)
- LoSboccacc 6y ago
  you're moving the goalpost from self sufficient to 100 millions humans, and the two are very lightly correlated. beside, earth manufacturing is biased toward efficiency and low cost, with the driver of capital gain, not sustainability, you don't actually need lcd if crt are good enough and could be manufactured in situ. sure it won't make for a good nor a pleasant standard of living, but then again, that's moving the goalpost.
  - Retric 6y ago
    If the standard of living is bad enough people will simply fail to immigrate. You need not just young men seeking adventure, but educated and talented people willing to have a family there across long timeframes as infrastructure is slowly built up. The US for example is below replacement rate, which is fine if you has constant immigration or it’s going to increase as the population falls. Less so if having 10% fewer people means everyone else dies. Technology is only half the battle you also need to avoid negative feedback loops where if conditions are bad enough you don’t get doctors and surgeons immigrants. Which then makes things worse. A few year shift is fine for a token settlement, less so if you’re shipping 100,000 people there and 100,000 people back every year.

What do you think would prevent a self sufficient colony on Mars in a few hundred years? I don't see any fundamental obstacles to it.

by jupp0r 6y ago

What do you think would prevent a self sufficient colony on Mars in a few hundred years? I don't see any fundamental obstacles to it.

Retric 6y ago

Self sufficient requires a manufacturing base to include everything needed to sustain it’s self, including redundancies. Going from zero humans on mars to 100’s of millions is a massive bootstrap problem with minimal incentive for the the people involved or the multiple years worth of earth’s GDP to get to that point. It’s like the “self replicating” 3D printers where they can produce 98% of the structure by weight and approximately 0.001% by complexity. A base that’s producing it’s own food is doable, shipping machines to say build solar panels or a specific chip isn’t a problem. However, even just the effort to figure out a minimal slice of earth’s technology to be self significant is hard. Aka building even a single type of LCD requires a massive number of different components, and the ability to build all the machines to make those components, and machines to make those machines, ... Now realize that’s just for an LCD, manufacturing every type of Medicine is a whole other list. Finally you need to accept everyone on Mars living in relative poverty for generations due to the inefficiencies involved.

kwhitefoot 6y ago
Why does it need hundreds of millions of people?
- Retric 6y ago
  That’s not a requirement, that’s the goal. In theory you could have a self sufficient base with 0 people and AI, or 100,000+ people for long term genetic diversity and an automated wonderland, or ...
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  Elon's estimate is that 1 million people are needed for Mars to industrialize sufficiently to become self-sufficient. A good reference is Casey Handmer's blog or book. https://www.amazon.com/How-Industrialize-Mars-Strategy-Self-Sufficiency-ebook/dp/B07GN3BJX3/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&qid=1603994976&refinements=p_27%3ACasey+Handmer&s=books&sr=1-1 https://www.amazon.com/How-Industrialize-Mars-Strategy-Self-... https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2020/08/23/progression-of-space-industrialization/ https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2020/08/23/progression-of...
  - goatlover 6y ago
    1 million in a few centuries seems feasible given the likely advances in technology. Hundreds of millions would require terraforming, which will likely take millennia. But those timescales are relatively short if human civilization persists. Even if Mars does not end up being ideal enough, Venus could be on a longer time scale. The article is short sighted.
eindiran 6y ago
> [Y]ou need to accept [that] everyone on Mars [will] live in relative poverty for generations. I think this point is by far the easiest one to address. Historically, there have always been people willing to do dangerous things (ie exploring the Arctic / Antarctica). I don't think you'd have any trouble finding people willing to give up their Earth lifestyle for a chance to explore the "frontier" even with the knowledge that they couldn't come back.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- dmitriid 6y ago
  Those explorers always have the luxury of going back to civilisation after relatively short excursions into the unknown. I doubt many people are willing to live the entirety of their lives in constant danger and constrained resources. And even fewer of those people will have the skills needed to run a complex technological society (and you will need a lot of technology to survive on Mars).
  - FlyMoreRockets 6y ago
    Colonists to the new world of the Americas didn't count on going back.
    - Retric 6y ago
      There was a constant string of boats going back to England and many people did so. What kept people in the America’s was they where better off there than Europe not the inability to leave.
  - deadmetheny 6y ago
    >Those explorers always have the luxury of going back to civilisation after relatively short excursions into the unknown. I doubt many people are willing to live the entirety of their lives in constant danger and constrained resources. Yet a very large majority of North America is descended from people who did exactly that.
vagrantJin 6y ago
I agree with you that complexity is a thing and not quite a simple hurdle but once the gears start turning I believe we have enough smart people among humanity as a whole to figure something out. I also think you take the idea of poverty way too seriously. People adapt to their environment remarkably quickly and the idea of poverty and wealth with it.
m4rtink 6y ago
Modern automated production techniques and additive manufacturing can help reduce this dependency a lot. You can also do some compromises - the stuff might be less elegant than cutting-edge Earth product, but it will work. Also people now have much better mental picture of the manufacturing tech tree than ever before thanks to Factorio. ;-)
LoSboccacc 6y ago
you're moving the goalpost from self sufficient to 100 millions humans, and the two are very lightly correlated. beside, earth manufacturing is biased toward efficiency and low cost, with the driver of capital gain, not sustainability, you don't actually need lcd if crt are good enough and could be manufactured in situ. sure it won't make for a good nor a pleasant standard of living, but then again, that's moving the goalpost.
- Retric 6y ago
  If the standard of living is bad enough people will simply fail to immigrate. You need not just young men seeking adventure, but educated and talented people willing to have a family there across long timeframes as infrastructure is slowly built up. The US for example is below replacement rate, which is fine if you has constant immigration or it’s going to increase as the population falls. Less so if having 10% fewer people means everyone else dies. Technology is only half the battle you also need to avoid negative feedback loops where if conditions are bad enough you don’t get doctors and surgeons immigrants. Which then makes things worse. A few year shift is fine for a token settlement, less so if you’re shipping 100,000 people there and 100,000 people back every year.