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It might beggar belief but it seems to be supported by data. Motor vehicle deaths per capita only started consistently dropping in the mid seventies.[1] [1] ht

It might beggar belief but it seems to be supported by data. Motor vehicle deaths per capita only started consistently dropping in the mid seventies.[1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year#Motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in...

h0l0cube 6y ago
And by the same data, that's also doubling from an average ~5,000mi travelled per capita in 1970 to ~10,000mi. Edit: Interesting to note that pedestrian fatalities took a sharp rise from 2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year#Pedestrians https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in...
- thaumasiotes 6y ago
  > that's also doubling from an average ~5,000mi travelled per capita in 1970 to ~10,000mi. More than that; the chart shows fatalities per vehicle mile starting at their all-time high and falling steadily thereafter. Exactly like you'd expect if people were trying to avoid fatalities. Nothing special happens in 1970, where fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled have already fallen to 4.7 from, say, 21 in 1923. 47 years in the other direction, fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled in 2017 are 1.16, a decline of 75.5% compared to the previous 47 years' 77.4%.
  - h0l0cube 6y ago
    You're indeed right. Though, I'm not sure how you disentangle effects from shifts in public policy and legal frameworks over that entire time span. My guess is: people died -> loved ones were upset -> political and commercial pressure mounted -> improvements were made. It might be that commercial interests often align with public safety and perception, but I bet that on the lower-end of the price spectrum, people would be willing to buy cars that endangered themselves and others. If only for lack of options.
    - oblio 6y ago
      People are notoriously bad at evaluating catastrophic failure event chances. Most people will say: "Yeah, it's a big unsafe (they won't even phrase it like that), but I will be more careful and it will be all right". Then the next day they'll go to that party and drive home tipsy. The cognitive dissonance won't even register.

h0l0cube 6y ago

And by the same data, that's also doubling from an average ~5,000mi travelled per capita in 1970 to ~10,000mi. Edit: Interesting to note that pedestrian fatalities took a sharp rise from 2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year#Pedestrians https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in...

thaumasiotes 6y ago
> that's also doubling from an average ~5,000mi travelled per capita in 1970 to ~10,000mi. More than that; the chart shows fatalities per vehicle mile starting at their all-time high and falling steadily thereafter. Exactly like you'd expect if people were trying to avoid fatalities. Nothing special happens in 1970, where fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled have already fallen to 4.7 from, say, 21 in 1923. 47 years in the other direction, fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled in 2017 are 1.16, a decline of 75.5% compared to the previous 47 years' 77.4%.
- h0l0cube 6y ago
  You're indeed right. Though, I'm not sure how you disentangle effects from shifts in public policy and legal frameworks over that entire time span. My guess is: people died -> loved ones were upset -> political and commercial pressure mounted -> improvements were made. It might be that commercial interests often align with public safety and perception, but I bet that on the lower-end of the price spectrum, people would be willing to buy cars that endangered themselves and others. If only for lack of options.
  - oblio 6y ago
    People are notoriously bad at evaluating catastrophic failure event chances. Most people will say: "Yeah, it's a big unsafe (they won't even phrase it like that), but I will be more careful and it will be all right". Then the next day they'll go to that party and drive home tipsy. The cognitive dissonance won't even register.