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Not lockdown is an alternative. If you run through the expected value calculations lockdowns make no sense. COVID running rampant means an age adjusted mortali

Not lockdown is an alternative. If you run through the expected value calculations lockdowns make no sense. COVID running rampant means an age adjusted mortality rate that matches 2005. Things weren't so bad then.

pedrocr 6y ago
Do you actually have the data to run that calculation? Mortality rates with good health care would roughly double the yearly mortality. It wouldn't be like 2005 or any other year, it would be unprecedented. But if you actually do that the health care will be very poor and much higher mortality will result.
lefrenchy 6y ago
There are a lot of implications of not locking down such as the quality of care going down when hospitals become overloaded, long term effects/immunity not totally understood, among other things. The WHO has said that herd immunity is not a valid strategy to tackle this pandemic. If you're going to advocate for a strategy that puts MORE people at risk and not LESS, then the burden of proof is on you to show that it will not cause more death and destruction. Saving lives is the priority and long term health outcomes should be a concern. Also much of the data we have now is WITH significant measures being taken around the world, I can't imagine it would look better if we took less measures to prevent the spread.
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Barrin92 6y ago
it's a terrible point for two reasons. The first one is, the economic trade-off doesn't exist. Even countries who avoided the lock downs saw significant economic damage often comparable to the countries that implemented lockdowns. Doing nothing also wrecks every other aspect of life. The country doing best right now economically is China, which used by far the harshest but also most effective measures in stomping the virus out. Second point, covid health damage isn't just limited to literal covid deaths. The disease sends countless people into hospitals, crowds out other necessary treatment, and causes debilitating damage to brain, heart, lungs and other organs in countless of patients. It's hard to even put a number on the long term damage done to people's bodies.

pedrocr 6y ago

Do you actually have the data to run that calculation? Mortality rates with good health care would roughly double the yearly mortality. It wouldn't be like 2005 or any other year, it would be unprecedented. But if you actually do that the health care will be very poor and much higher mortality will result.

lefrenchy 6y ago

There are a lot of implications of not locking down such as the quality of care going down when hospitals become overloaded, long term effects/immunity not totally understood, among other things. The WHO has said that herd immunity is not a valid strategy to tackle this pandemic. If you're going to advocate for a strategy that puts MORE people at risk and not LESS, then the burden of proof is on you to show that it will not cause more death and destruction. Saving lives is the priority and long term health outcomes should be a concern. Also much of the data we have now is WITH significant measures being taken around the world, I can't imagine it would look better if we took less measures to prevent the spread.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

Barrin92 6y ago

it's a terrible point for two reasons. The first one is, the economic trade-off doesn't exist. Even countries who avoided the lock downs saw significant economic damage often comparable to the countries that implemented lockdowns. Doing nothing also wrecks every other aspect of life. The country doing best right now economically is China, which used by far the harshest but also most effective measures in stomping the virus out. Second point, covid health damage isn't just limited to literal covid deaths. The disease sends countless people into hospitals, crowds out other necessary treatment, and causes debilitating damage to brain, heart, lungs and other organs in countless of patients. It's hard to even put a number on the long term damage done to people's bodies.