6 ms·

The fair comparison would obviously look at deaths per mile traveled for each category, not total deaths.

Retric 6y ago
That gets into fun with statistics. On a pure deaths per mile basis Autopilot is already safer than the average car driven by the average driver. However, people downplay that by adjusting for various things making them relatively equivalent with not enough data to really say one way or another. Basically, there is simply not enough data to be statistically significant improvement or detriment vs drivers, but there is enough data to say they are safe enough to be used.
- amanaplanacanal 6y ago
  How can you say autopilot is safer when the human driver has to take over when it sees the autopilot isn’t up to the task? Isn’t the prima fascia evidence that the human driver is safer?
  - Retric 6y ago
    Different areas of expertise, a computer’s doesn’t get bored, drunk, or text people while driving. Safety is just about not crashing, actually getting somewhere is a different story. In some ways having a human take over in difficult conditions is stacking the deck, but computers are also taking over in an crash to slow down before impact and people are adjusting how much autopilot speeds. So, it’s kind of a grey area, but at a minimum we know autopilot isn’t dramatically worse than humans.
    - amanaplanacanal 6y ago
      Of course it is. Count every time the human has to take over as a crash for the computer, and then see what your statistics look like. The computer is much worse.
      - Retric 6y ago
        Every time the computer is handing off control that’s a multi second process where it could have come to a complete stop instead. Essentially that’s the same thing as the vehicle stability assistance kicking in, which very much favors the machines. Instead you need to count the number of times someone has actively taken control to avoid a collision, which is rare enough it’s hard to find examples.
        amanaplanacanal 6y ago
        You seem to be claiming that the computer really is good enough today for fully autonomous driving, and that the need for the driver to pay attention and keep hands in the wheel is really unnecessary. Is that right?
        Retric 6y ago
        I don’t think fully autonomous driving is ready, fully autonomous human equivalent accident avoidance is a much simpler problem that seems to be largely solved. Having an alert driver paying attention is a net benefit, but in practice people don’t continuously pay full attention for long stretches with autonomous driving. If you assume people are paying attention say 90% of the time in practice then their only catching less than 90% of the potential accidents they could avoid. Further, assuming identical rates of accidents to the average person the other car is at fault 1/2 the increase is further reduced. As such, I think the regulation is a good idea for now as the net benefit to fully autonomous driving is to the individual while the risks include other drivers.
totalZero 6y ago
I think deaths per hour driven gives a more appropriate weighting to city driving, which presents different complications and hazards from those encountered on a highway.
- beervirus 6y ago
  That also seems reasonable, although city driving will be biased toward more accidents, but fewer fatalities.

That gets into fun with statistics. On a pure deaths per mile basis Autopilot is already safer than the average car driven by the average driver. However, people downplay that by adjusting for various things making them relatively equivalent with not enough data to really say one way or another. Basically, there is simply not enough data to be statistically significant improvement or detriment vs drivers, but there is enough data to say they are safe enough to be used.

amanaplanacanal 6y ago
How can you say autopilot is safer when the human driver has to take over when it sees the autopilot isn’t up to the task? Isn’t the prima fascia evidence that the human driver is safer?
- Retric 6y ago
  Different areas of expertise, a computer’s doesn’t get bored, drunk, or text people while driving. Safety is just about not crashing, actually getting somewhere is a different story. In some ways having a human take over in difficult conditions is stacking the deck, but computers are also taking over in an crash to slow down before impact and people are adjusting how much autopilot speeds. So, it’s kind of a grey area, but at a minimum we know autopilot isn’t dramatically worse than humans.
  - amanaplanacanal 6y ago
    Of course it is. Count every time the human has to take over as a crash for the computer, and then see what your statistics look like. The computer is much worse.
    - Retric 6y ago
      Every time the computer is handing off control that’s a multi second process where it could have come to a complete stop instead. Essentially that’s the same thing as the vehicle stability assistance kicking in, which very much favors the machines. Instead you need to count the number of times someone has actively taken control to avoid a collision, which is rare enough it’s hard to find examples.
      - amanaplanacanal 6y ago
        You seem to be claiming that the computer really is good enough today for fully autonomous driving, and that the need for the driver to pay attention and keep hands in the wheel is really unnecessary. Is that right?
        Retric 6y ago
        I don’t think fully autonomous driving is ready, fully autonomous human equivalent accident avoidance is a much simpler problem that seems to be largely solved. Having an alert driver paying attention is a net benefit, but in practice people don’t continuously pay full attention for long stretches with autonomous driving. If you assume people are paying attention say 90% of the time in practice then their only catching less than 90% of the potential accidents they could avoid. Further, assuming identical rates of accidents to the average person the other car is at fault 1/2 the increase is further reduced. As such, I think the regulation is a good idea for now as the net benefit to fully autonomous driving is to the individual while the risks include other drivers.

totalZero 6y ago

I think deaths per hour driven gives a more appropriate weighting to city driving, which presents different complications and hazards from those encountered on a highway.

beervirus 6y ago
That also seems reasonable, although city driving will be biased toward more accidents, but fewer fatalities.