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Agree with your positive response. Missing from this conjecture is a synthesis with car and bike sharing. There will also be massive land use, zoning changes
by specialist 6y ago
Agree with your positive response.
Missing from this conjecture is a synthesis with car and bike sharing.
There will also be massive land use, zoning changes when there's 90% fewer personal cars. Unused capacity (parking, roads) freed up and repurposed.
The role for autonomous driving for moving people (vs turking cargo) will look very different when our cities look more like medieval villas and college campuses.
I still cannot even guess if the future will be more concentrated or more sprawl. So I've provisionally decided "both", but very different from today.
- ip26 6y ago90% fewer? To me this would seem to ignore that everyone tends to want to go to the same place at the same time. Demand for automobiles (and parking, and roads) is peaky.
- specialist 6y ago90% is my optimistic guess. I'd wager today's style (cars, SUVs) will downsize even more. It'd be interesting to learn the automobile industry's own market size projections.
- Fricken 6y agoMost American cities are desperate for massive land use and zoning changes now, but I don't think it could happen without the implementation of broad mandates at the national level, such as you see in Japan. Politically that just seems impossible these days. Maybe it will seem more possible in a few years.