4 ms·

How likely is it that Apple would relinquish those 15% to 20% of their profits that are now coming from Google? Not very I would guess. I could see them coming

How likely is it that Apple would relinquish those 15% to 20% of their profits that are now coming from Google? Not very I would guess. I could see them coming up with some sort of privacy friendly ad targeting system using on-device matching or differential privacy. So they solve the privacy problem but there will still be ads (unless you buy their "Apple Ad Free Experience" service for $10 per month)

lastofthemojito 6y ago
On the other hand Apple might happily accept those payments for now, but realize that they won't keep coming forever. It's quite possible that DOJ antitrust action would prevent Google from paying to be a preferred search engine in the future. Once Google isn't paying you, why not provide your own search engine (and cut Google off from that valuable data stream)?
- C1sc0cat 6y ago
  Or Google turns sates evidence and blames that nasty monopolist Apple for extracting the Vig from them, and suggests that Apple must have a ballot in Mac OS and IOS a bit like MS
  - thewebcount 6y ago
    Given that Google also pays Mozilla about the same amount, it would be hard to prove that Apple's "extracting" it from them. Google very much wants to be able to pay all the browser makers to be the search engine of choice. Nobody has to extract anything from them.
- fauigerzigerk 6y ago
  Absolutely, but I really doubt that Apple will just shrug its shoulders about the lost profits and throw in an ad-free search engine for the price an iPhone. My prediction is that they will try to monetise this somehow. And the most likely way to do this is via some privacy friendly advertising model (or an ad/subscription hybrid). They're already doing it with Apple News.
ceejayoz 6y ago
edit: I misread a thing. Apple made over a quarter trillion dollars in profits in 2019 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/267728/apples-net-income-since-2005/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/267728/apples-net-income...), and gets somewhere around $10B from Google. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/apple-services-success-story-bolstered-by-huge-google-payments.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/apple-services-success-story...) They can certainly afford to ditch the partnership.
- iMark 6y ago
  That was pre-tax income. Apple's profit for 2019 was $55 billion.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    You're right. Ack.
    - TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
      Given which, it's interesting this was announced now - just in time to conveniently give Google a hotline to a "See! Not really a monopoly!" defence.
- addicted 6y ago
  How much money would ads that are broadly targeted (city, gender, age bracket) like Google used to, be able to make relative to the uber personalized Google/Favebook ads?
- gbil 6y ago
  I believe you confuse revenue with profit
PrinceKropotkin 6y ago
Pretty likely, i mean it stands to reason they'd make more in the long term without a middle man.
spsful 6y ago
> unlike Google, it’s not reliant on advertising income, which benefits from personalized data with which to target users. I'm unsure as to whether they would seriously create a new ad platform, but a key tenant of the company's culture is not relying on advertising for revenue.
- srtjstjsj 6y ago
  Except the massive revenue from Google ads via Google.
simonh 6y ago
They did exactly this when they ditched Google Maps, turning down billions of dollars in revenue, spending billions of dollars to build out their own service, simply to prevent Google harvesting Apple user location data.
- fauigerzigerk 6y ago
  I don't think Maps is anywhere near as profitable as search.
  - simonh 6y ago
    That’s true, but it doesn’t mean Apple won’t or can’t do the same thing with search as they did maps. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t, but they do have a track record of doing right by their users. BTW their maps revenue from Google was a bigger share of total revenue when they gave it up than their search revenue is now.
diebeforei485 6y ago
These payments have been under increasing scrutiny from trustbusters the past few years. It's not gonna keep flowing.

lastofthemojito 6y ago

On the other hand Apple might happily accept those payments for now, but realize that they won't keep coming forever. It's quite possible that DOJ antitrust action would prevent Google from paying to be a preferred search engine in the future. Once Google isn't paying you, why not provide your own search engine (and cut Google off from that valuable data stream)?

C1sc0cat 6y ago
Or Google turns sates evidence and blames that nasty monopolist Apple for extracting the Vig from them, and suggests that Apple must have a ballot in Mac OS and IOS a bit like MS
- thewebcount 6y ago
  Given that Google also pays Mozilla about the same amount, it would be hard to prove that Apple's "extracting" it from them. Google very much wants to be able to pay all the browser makers to be the search engine of choice. Nobody has to extract anything from them.
fauigerzigerk 6y ago
Absolutely, but I really doubt that Apple will just shrug its shoulders about the lost profits and throw in an ad-free search engine for the price an iPhone. My prediction is that they will try to monetise this somehow. And the most likely way to do this is via some privacy friendly advertising model (or an ad/subscription hybrid). They're already doing it with Apple News.

ceejayoz 6y ago

edit: I misread a thing. Apple made over a quarter trillion dollars in profits in 2019 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/267728/apples-net-income-since-2005/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/267728/apples-net-income...), and gets somewhere around $10B from Google. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/apple-services-success-story-bolstered-by-huge-google-payments.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/apple-services-success-story...) They can certainly afford to ditch the partnership.

iMark 6y ago
That was pre-tax income. Apple's profit for 2019 was $55 billion.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  You're right. Ack.
  - TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
    Given which, it's interesting this was announced now - just in time to conveniently give Google a hotline to a "See! Not really a monopoly!" defence.
addicted 6y ago
How much money would ads that are broadly targeted (city, gender, age bracket) like Google used to, be able to make relative to the uber personalized Google/Favebook ads?
gbil 6y ago
I believe you confuse revenue with profit

PrinceKropotkin 6y ago

Pretty likely, i mean it stands to reason they'd make more in the long term without a middle man.

spsful 6y ago

> unlike Google, it’s not reliant on advertising income, which benefits from personalized data with which to target users. I'm unsure as to whether they would seriously create a new ad platform, but a key tenant of the company's culture is not relying on advertising for revenue.

srtjstjsj 6y ago
Except the massive revenue from Google ads via Google.

simonh 6y ago

They did exactly this when they ditched Google Maps, turning down billions of dollars in revenue, spending billions of dollars to build out their own service, simply to prevent Google harvesting Apple user location data.

fauigerzigerk 6y ago
I don't think Maps is anywhere near as profitable as search.
- simonh 6y ago
  That’s true, but it doesn’t mean Apple won’t or can’t do the same thing with search as they did maps. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t, but they do have a track record of doing right by their users. BTW their maps revenue from Google was a bigger share of total revenue when they gave it up than their search revenue is now.

diebeforei485 6y ago

These payments have been under increasing scrutiny from trustbusters the past few years. It's not gonna keep flowing.