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The federal reserve won't collapse, they have the ability to create money. The currency the federal reserve multiplies? That could collapse. Since 2020, the d

The federal reserve won't collapse, they have the ability to create money. The currency the federal reserve multiplies? That could collapse. Since 2020, the dollar menu is gone, home and stock prices skyrocketed. In a year I've seen ~30% inflation. There's no reason for the inflation to stop there. (Note, I have lots of investment, inflation may help me)

question000 6y ago
Ok make any kind of verifiable prediction about this and we will see if it happens or not.
- marketingPro 6y ago
  Download taco Bell or McDonald's app. what is the current price for 400 calories? Mine is $1.30, in February this was $1. For stock info, look it up. Not sure where to get historical real estate prices, I'm just looking for a second property and everything is at least 10% higher than in February as you need to offer more than the selling price in this economy.
  - question000 6y ago
    Ok make a prediction about the "currency collapsing" and we will see. An actual prediction of the value of the currency not just a remark about prices seeming unusually high to you personally.
    - marketingPro 6y ago
      I run a website that tracks food costs. Not sure if you are looking for Data or a psychic. I do the former.
      - question000 6y ago
        Ok why do you believe this if you can't make one verifiable prediction that it will happen? Will it happens tomorrow? In 20 years? In 5 months? It's just a feeling you have that isn't backed by data. I can't really ever disprove this because you're not really making any claim. This is every FED conversation on HN. People totally believe hyperinflation is "just around the corner" but it never happens only standard normal levels of inflation always within FED projections. What's your website BTW?
        marketingPro 6y ago
        Efficiency is everything. Give it a Google. Also, why are you discounting the last 100 years of federal reserve policy? We obviously had greater than 10x inflation. Is 30% inflation in 8 months not considered hyperinflation? My kids bank account is 30% less valuable now. I'm not going to fight over definitions that 30% inflation isn't enough to be considered hyperinflation.
        question000 6y ago
        Ok you're right the Federal Reserve has already collapsed. /s
        question000 6y ago
        That's just being silly.
- SuoDuanDao 6y ago
  I'll play. It will be possible to buy large amounts of crude oil without owning USDs by 2026.
  - question000 6y ago
    I mean this wouldn't necessarily mean a collapse, but I really applaud the relative specificity and reasonableness of this claim. Still don't think it will happen.
wil421 6y ago
The BLS doesn’t even list a double digit increase for “food away from home” at all this year. “Food at home” has been decreasing the past few months but remains up by almost 5%. CPI is not the best measure and isn’t always 100% accurate but it’s not going to be off by double digits. > The index for food away from home continued to rise, increasing 0.6 percent in September. The index for limited service meals rose 0.9 percent in September, the largest increase in the history of the index, which dates to 1997. > Despite the September decline, the food at home index increased 4.1 percent over the last 12 months. All six major grocery store food group indexes rose over that span, with increases ranging from 2.6 percent (cereals and bakery products) to 6.3 percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs). The index for food away from home rose 3.8 percent over the last year. The index for limited service meals increased 5.5 percent and the index for full service meals rose 2.8 percent over the last 12 months. Of note: > The index for used cars and trucks rose 6.7 percent in September, its largest monthly increase since February 1969. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
shadowgovt 6y ago
This is essentially correct mechanically, though I don't share this author's prediction that we're sliding towards a collapse. We're in a pandemic; pandemics push the market around. But they also end. But mechanically, yes. The Fed can't collapse while it's the controlling institution of the dollar. The dollar is the world's reserve currency. It's the denomination unit for paying IMF loans. It's the unit of money other countries shove under a big ol' mattress (with scary-looking guards around it) to backstop a collapse of their national currency. The dollar is so deeply baked into international economics that only global shocks can fundamentally shake its value as a currency. If that changes, the Fed's power base becomes heavily disrupted, but most of us in the US won't notice because we'll be too busy riding in gangs with our fellow War Boyz hunting down the last reserves of Go Juice for our Death Rigz under a burning sky. ;)

question000 6y ago

Ok make any kind of verifiable prediction about this and we will see if it happens or not.

marketingPro 6y ago
Download taco Bell or McDonald's app. what is the current price for 400 calories? Mine is $1.30, in February this was $1. For stock info, look it up. Not sure where to get historical real estate prices, I'm just looking for a second property and everything is at least 10% higher than in February as you need to offer more than the selling price in this economy.
- question000 6y ago
  Ok make a prediction about the "currency collapsing" and we will see. An actual prediction of the value of the currency not just a remark about prices seeming unusually high to you personally.
  - marketingPro 6y ago
    I run a website that tracks food costs. Not sure if you are looking for Data or a psychic. I do the former.
    - question000 6y ago
      Ok why do you believe this if you can't make one verifiable prediction that it will happen? Will it happens tomorrow? In 20 years? In 5 months? It's just a feeling you have that isn't backed by data. I can't really ever disprove this because you're not really making any claim. This is every FED conversation on HN. People totally believe hyperinflation is "just around the corner" but it never happens only standard normal levels of inflation always within FED projections. What's your website BTW?
      - marketingPro 6y ago
        Efficiency is everything. Give it a Google. Also, why are you discounting the last 100 years of federal reserve policy? We obviously had greater than 10x inflation. Is 30% inflation in 8 months not considered hyperinflation? My kids bank account is 30% less valuable now. I'm not going to fight over definitions that 30% inflation isn't enough to be considered hyperinflation.
        question000 6y ago
        Ok you're right the Federal Reserve has already collapsed. /s
        question000 6y ago
        That's just being silly.
SuoDuanDao 6y ago
I'll play. It will be possible to buy large amounts of crude oil without owning USDs by 2026.
- question000 6y ago
  I mean this wouldn't necessarily mean a collapse, but I really applaud the relative specificity and reasonableness of this claim. Still don't think it will happen.

wil421 6y ago

The BLS doesn’t even list a double digit increase for “food away from home” at all this year. “Food at home” has been decreasing the past few months but remains up by almost 5%. CPI is not the best measure and isn’t always 100% accurate but it’s not going to be off by double digits. > The index for food away from home continued to rise, increasing 0.6 percent in September. The index for limited service meals rose 0.9 percent in September, the largest increase in the history of the index, which dates to 1997. > Despite the September decline, the food at home index increased 4.1 percent over the last 12 months. All six major grocery store food group indexes rose over that span, with increases ranging from 2.6 percent (cereals and bakery products) to 6.3 percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs). The index for food away from home rose 3.8 percent over the last year. The index for limited service meals increased 5.5 percent and the index for full service meals rose 2.8 percent over the last 12 months. Of note: > The index for used cars and trucks rose 6.7 percent in September, its largest monthly increase since February 1969. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

shadowgovt 6y ago

This is essentially correct mechanically, though I don't share this author's prediction that we're sliding towards a collapse. We're in a pandemic; pandemics push the market around. But they also end. But mechanically, yes. The Fed can't collapse while it's the controlling institution of the dollar. The dollar is the world's reserve currency. It's the denomination unit for paying IMF loans. It's the unit of money other countries shove under a big ol' mattress (with scary-looking guards around it) to backstop a collapse of their national currency. The dollar is so deeply baked into international economics that only global shocks can fundamentally shake its value as a currency. If that changes, the Fed's power base becomes heavily disrupted, but most of us in the US won't notice because we'll be too busy riding in gangs with our fellow War Boyz hunting down the last reserves of Go Juice for our Death Rigz under a burning sky. ;)