I'd argue it's not even a Bayesian error but a logic error stemming from difficulty with contraposition.[0] It checks out even if you remove the probability as

I'd argue it's not even a Bayesian error but a logic error stemming from difficulty with contraposition.[0] It checks out even if you remove the probability aspect of it and use a simple implication. - [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contraposition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contraposition