2 ms·

Is it though? An Uber driver is likely to spend more time in a car, and therefore more likely to be in a car accident. Is a person more likely to spend time a

Is it though? An Uber driver is likely to spend more time in a car, and therefore more likely to be in a car accident. Is a person more likely to spend time around sick people if they’re Vitamin D deficient? Yes it’s correlation, but correlation specifically without known other causes (Unlike the Uber example).

madrox 6y ago
Yes, that’s the point of the Uber example, and while it’s trivial to realize what the hidden correlation is in this case it’s pointing out there could be other hidden correlations in this case we don’t automatically know. For example, vitamin D deficiency can be a symptom of an underlying issue that is actually what causes sicker patients. Or what’s even more likely, vitamin D deficiency is more prevalent among elderly and African Americans, who have been disproportionately hit harder by COVID because they’re more vulnerable to disease in general (former) or are more likely to be unable to isolate due to being an essential worker (latter). And before we start debating these specific possibilities, the point is to illustrate we can’t just assume more than the sampling method dictates. Different studies are needed.
- headmelted 6y ago
  Gotcha, with you now. Now that you’ve phrased it this way I see your point and I’ve actually been thinking this myself for a while now. Also, you wouldn’t believe the amount of conversations I’ve had with people who are convinced it “only kills old people” who’s eyes glaze over when I explain that there are other outcomes besides living and dying. Everyone in the world seems to believe it’s a magical death lottery that instantly switches the lights off for 0.01% of people who catch it, and the other 99.99% of people are therefore completely fine. The whole world’s gone mad.

2 ms·

Is it though? An Uber driver is likely to spend more time in a car, and therefore more likely to be in a car accident. Is a person more likely to spend time a

by headmelted 6y ago

madrox 6y ago
Yes, that’s the point of the Uber example, and while it’s trivial to realize what the hidden correlation is in this case it’s pointing out there could be other hidden correlations in this case we don’t automatically know. For example, vitamin D deficiency can be a symptom of an underlying issue that is actually what causes sicker patients. Or what’s even more likely, vitamin D deficiency is more prevalent among elderly and African Americans, who have been disproportionately hit harder by COVID because they’re more vulnerable to disease in general (former) or are more likely to be unable to isolate due to being an essential worker (latter). And before we start debating these specific possibilities, the point is to illustrate we can’t just assume more than the sampling method dictates. Different studies are needed.
- headmelted 6y ago
  Gotcha, with you now. Now that you’ve phrased it this way I see your point and I’ve actually been thinking this myself for a while now. Also, you wouldn’t believe the amount of conversations I’ve had with people who are convinced it “only kills old people” who’s eyes glaze over when I explain that there are other outcomes besides living and dying. Everyone in the world seems to believe it’s a magical death lottery that instantly switches the lights off for 0.01% of people who catch it, and the other 99.99% of people are therefore completely fine. The whole world’s gone mad.