4 ms·
Yes, a better number when looking at the impact would be in life-years lost when looking at the cost of covid. That's about $130k per quality-adjusted life-yea
by iso1210 6y ago
Yes, a better number when looking at the impact would be in life-years lost when looking at the cost of covid.
That's about $130k per quality-adjusted life-year, or $60k per year for dialysis paitents. [0]
US Covid Deaths by age
85+: 63,864
75-85: 55,089
65-75: 45,015
55-65: 26,525
45-55: 11,093
35-45: 4,206
25-35: 1,628
<25: 462
Lets assume a 2:1 male:female death ratio and mid points for all groups except 85+ (which will use 85). Just an approximation
Life expectency [2], woman, man, combined
85: 7y, 5+10m, 6
80: 9+8m, 8, 9
70: 16+6, 14+3, 15
60: 24+6, 21+6, 22
50: 33+2, 29+8, 31
40: 42+6, 38+7, 40
30: 52+1, 48, 49
20: 61+9, 57+3, 59
So years saved
85+: 383k
75-85: 825k
65-75: 990k
55-65: 580k
45-55: 340k
35-45: 170k
25-35: 80k
<25: 27k
So total years: 3.4 million, an average of 16 years per death.
At $60k a year that's $200b.
At $130k a year that's $440b
As the cost to the US economy is estimated in the 10T range, it seems a poor use of funds.
However that assumes more intervention would save more lives.
With an IFR of 0.9% (even assuming no collapse in health system, but IFR estimates also overread) you'd be looking at 2.5-3 million dead overall depending how many got it. That still would come out at 5T tops, so on a financial basis better to just let it rip.
However the big assumption is that there would be no cost to economy without intervention as many people decide to stay at home, as confidence is lost and people stop spending, and that runs into a recession anyway. The 2008 recession cost $70k per person [3], that's 23T.
It also assumes that the 5T could be spent elsewhere in saving lives.
[0] https://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/article/S1098-3015(10)60676-6/pdf https://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/article/S1098-3015(10)6...
[1] https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/covid-19-deaths-by-age/ https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/c...
[2] https://coolconversion.com/heath/life-expectancy-calculator-us/Life-expectancy-at-age_74_in-US_w https://coolconversion.com/heath/life-expectancy-calculator-...
[3] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-much-the-2008-financial-crisis-cost-you-in-dollars/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-much-the-2008-financial-cri...