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Over 99% of Covid-19 patients are going to die in the next 100 years. If only we could add about 50-60 years to their lifespans, we could cure Covid-19!

by kesor 6y ago

iso1210 6y ago
Yes, a better number when looking at the impact would be in life-years lost when looking at the cost of covid. That's about $130k per quality-adjusted life-year, or $60k per year for dialysis paitents. [0] US Covid Deaths by age 85+: 63,864 75-85: 55,089 65-75: 45,015 55-65: 26,525 45-55: 11,093 35-45: 4,206 25-35: 1,628 <25: 462 Lets assume a 2:1 male:female death ratio and mid points for all groups except 85+ (which will use 85). Just an approximation Life expectency [2], woman, man, combined 85: 7y, 5+10m, 6 80: 9+8m, 8, 9 70: 16+6, 14+3, 15 60: 24+6, 21+6, 22 50: 33+2, 29+8, 31 40: 42+6, 38+7, 40 30: 52+1, 48, 49 20: 61+9, 57+3, 59 So years saved 85+: 383k 75-85: 825k 65-75: 990k 55-65: 580k 45-55: 340k 35-45: 170k 25-35: 80k <25: 27k So total years: 3.4 million, an average of 16 years per death. At $60k a year that's $200b. At $130k a year that's $440b As the cost to the US economy is estimated in the 10T range, it seems a poor use of funds. However that assumes more intervention would save more lives. With an IFR of 0.9% (even assuming no collapse in health system, but IFR estimates also overread) you'd be looking at 2.5-3 million dead overall depending how many got it. That still would come out at 5T tops, so on a financial basis better to just let it rip. However the big assumption is that there would be no cost to economy without intervention as many people decide to stay at home, as confidence is lost and people stop spending, and that runs into a recession anyway. The 2008 recession cost $70k per person [3], that's 23T. It also assumes that the 5T could be spent elsewhere in saving lives. [0] https://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/article/S1098-3015(10)60676-6/pdf https://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/article/S1098-3015(10)6... [1] https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/covid-19-deaths-by-age/ https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/c... [2] https://coolconversion.com/heath/life-expectancy-calculator-us/Life-expectancy-at-age_74_in-US_w https://coolconversion.com/heath/life-expectancy-calculator-... [3] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-much-the-2008-financial-crisis-cost-you-in-dollars/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-much-the-2008-financial-cri...

Over 99% of Covid-19 patients are going to die in the next 100 years. If only we could add about 50-60 years to their lifespans, we could cure Covid-19!

by kesor 6y ago

Over 99% of Covid-19 patients are going to die in the next 100 years. If only we could add about 50-60 years to their lifespans, we could cure Covid-19!

iso1210 6y ago

Yes, a better number when looking at the impact would be in life-years lost when looking at the cost of covid. That's about $130k per quality-adjusted life-year, or $60k per year for dialysis paitents. [0] US Covid Deaths by age 85+: 63,864 75-85: 55,089 65-75: 45,015 55-65: 26,525 45-55: 11,093 35-45: 4,206 25-35: 1,628 <25: 462 Lets assume a 2:1 male:female death ratio and mid points for all groups except 85+ (which will use 85). Just an approximation Life expectency [2], woman, man, combined 85: 7y, 5+10m, 6 80: 9+8m, 8, 9 70: 16+6, 14+3, 15 60: 24+6, 21+6, 22 50: 33+2, 29+8, 31 40: 42+6, 38+7, 40 30: 52+1, 48, 49 20: 61+9, 57+3, 59 So years saved 85+: 383k 75-85: 825k 65-75: 990k 55-65: 580k 45-55: 340k 35-45: 170k 25-35: 80k <25: 27k So total years: 3.4 million, an average of 16 years per death. At $60k a year that's $200b. At $130k a year that's $440b As the cost to the US economy is estimated in the 10T range, it seems a poor use of funds. However that assumes more intervention would save more lives. With an IFR of 0.9% (even assuming no collapse in health system, but IFR estimates also overread) you'd be looking at 2.5-3 million dead overall depending how many got it. That still would come out at 5T tops, so on a financial basis better to just let it rip. However the big assumption is that there would be no cost to economy without intervention as many people decide to stay at home, as confidence is lost and people stop spending, and that runs into a recession anyway. The 2008 recession cost $70k per person [3], that's 23T. It also assumes that the 5T could be spent elsewhere in saving lives. [0] https://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/article/S1098-3015(10)60676-6/pdf https://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/article/S1098-3015(10)6... [1] https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/covid-19-deaths-by-age/ https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/c... [2] https://coolconversion.com/heath/life-expectancy-calculator-us/Life-expectancy-at-age_74_in-US_w https://coolconversion.com/heath/life-expectancy-calculator-... [3] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-much-the-2008-financial-crisis-cost-you-in-dollars/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-much-the-2008-financial-cri...