5 ms·

You're missing the third option: People who are more likely to be hospitalized due to COVID are also more likely to be deficient in vitamin D. There doesn't ha

You're missing the third option: People who are more likely to be hospitalized due to COVID are also more likely to be deficient in vitamin D. There doesn't have to be a causal relationship at all.

jb775 6y ago
I understand what you mean, but don't think your example really fits since an increase in vitamin D in either scenario would ultimately reduce the occurrences of patients showing low vitamin D levels. And this seems to be a fairly consistent finding across multiple studies that use different controls/stratification/etc. Or do you mean people may be becoming deficient in vitamin D as a result of Covid? If so, would be interesting to know their prior vitamin D levels.
- JshWright 6y ago
  I'm not entirely sure you're replying to the correct comment, but just in case... I mean the population of people who are more likely to be hospitalized due to COVID also happens to be the population of people that is more likely to be deficient in vit D, and neither of those things have to cause the other.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- rblatz 6y ago
  An increase in Vitamin D levels may or may not impact COVID 19 hospitalization rates. Just like lowering ice cream sales won’t change the murder rate. Even though increased Ice cream sales is correlated with increase murder rate.
  - asveikau 6y ago
    I know your point is that correlation does not mean causation (though maybe those are correlated?), however, that really makes it sound like guys like Ben & Jerry have blood on their hands.
    - beagle3 6y ago
      rblatz is referring to a well known correlation: more nursery happen in summer. More ice cream gets sold in summer. Therefore, ice cream sales are correlated with murders. This correlation is not random - it holds across geographic boundaries and time. But it is not causal - decreasing ice cream sales (By limiting supply, raising price, etc) will not reduce murders. Decreasing murders (By more police intervention, limiting arms sales) does not reDuce ice cream sales. Similarly, vitamin D may be The ice cream analog. COVID 19 may be the murder analog, and if that’s true, we don’t yet know what summer’s analog here - could be obesity, or genetic factors, or something else. We don’t know.
      - pmg101 6y ago
        typo - you put 'nursery' instead of 'murder'
        beagle3 6y ago
        Thanks, too late to fix now. DYAC, was on phone and didn't notice.
  - jmnicolas 6y ago
    > Even though increased Ice cream sales is correlated with increase murder rate. I thought you were kidding but no: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2013/07/warm-weather-homicide-rates-when-ice-cream-sales-rise-homicides-rise-coincidence.html https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2013/07/warm-weather-hom...
GoldenMonkey 6y ago
^this!
cjbprime 6y ago
I suppose there's even a fourth option: People who are more likely to be hospitalized are also more likely to be deficient in vitamin D. The control group seemed to be a healthy population sample, but hospitals are not a pool of healthy people. How about a hospital sample instead of a population sample?
- nwah1 6y ago
  Maybe Vitamin D reduces all-cause hospitalization
  - andi999 6y ago
    Maybe beeing healthy and able to go outdoors reduces all-cause hospitalization (apart from accidents)
  - ganafagol 6y ago
    Or maybe low vitamin D levels are a symptom of the same "root cause" that leads to higher risk for Covid-19 and just supplementing vitamin D does not do anything to lower the latter. Those vitamin D level statistics have been floating around for months. What's missing is a placebo-controlled study to see whether supplementation would make a difference. But that involves more than just clicking a bit of statistics.
    - scottlocklin 6y ago
      That study is absolutely not missing, and it says exactly what you'd expect it to[0]. It's even being tested as an active treatment[1]. In fact, that study was also done with Influenza[2] and other lung borne ailments as well. It pretty obviously works, has tremendous explanatory power in the observed patterns of disease, and the fact that no government has sanctioned its use or its mass production ... well, I guess modernity kind of sucks. Better to pimp useless expensive garbage pharma companies can turn a profit on. [0]https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04536298 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04536298 [1] https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04385940 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04385940 [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4463890/#:~:text=In%20those%20patients%20who%20do,in%2048%20to%2072%20hours https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4463890/#:~:tex....
stjohnswarts 6y ago
I doubt anyone is saying with 100% assurance this is the -cause- but that it would be worth investigating further. If they'll change FDA recommendations for the blowhard in chief, we should also consider lack of certain nutrients as possibly something to look into as well.
- tremon 6y ago
  I recall an article a few months ago that discussed the Vitamin-D link in more depth, and a plausible mechanism was already suggested: vitamin D regulates the immune system response. People with low vitamin D levels are more likely to experience severe cytokine storms. PDF from April 2020: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/10/2020.04.08.20058578.full.pdf?mod=article_inline https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/10/202... The impact of Vit D in enhancing immune response (including flu and previous coronaviruses) has widely been studied and firmly established. Vit D can also suppress cytokine storm, which may substantially increase the chances of avoiding a severe case of COVID-19
carlmr 6y ago
Yeah, that's very likely actually, since the biggest risk group, the elderly, are also one of the groups with the highest levels of vitamin D deficiency. In this study here 84% of the elderly had some amount of vitamin D deficiency (Figure 3). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6178567/#:~:text=Elderly%20men%20are%20more%20likely,%25%20and%2026%25%2C%20respectively https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6178567/#:~:tex.... I do take Vitamin D supplements since they're cheap and available, just in case there is something to it, but I wouldn't bet on it.
- fogihujy 6y ago
  I do the same. Getting enough sunlight is hard during wintertime. Vitamin D deficiency has been linked to compromised immune systems, depression, rickets and several other things. More research is needed within several of those areas, but I believe it to be safe to assume that supplementing with vitamin D is good for you if you're deficient. If not, well, it's not like it's going to hurt you unless you overdo it.
- yiyus 6y ago
  There must be very well controlled groups of elderly people who after some blood test have been taking supplements and checking their vitamine D levels. I wonder how the virus is affecting this group compared with the general population of the same age. If this group were doing well, I think it would be quite conclusive, since it would show that people under treatment (and therefore with some previous health problem) are doing better than supposedly healthy people with low vitamine D values.
spion 6y ago
The level of evidence isn't great yet, but its highly likely that Vitamin D can help modulate the immune system. There is a retrospective study showing a difference between patients that got Vitamin D and those that didn't (can't find the link, unfortunately), and there is a small Spanish trial of 75 people where 50 got Vitamin D and 25 did not; in the group that did, 1 person needed oxygen whereas in the other group 12 people needed oxygen and one died - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456194/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456194/

You're missing the third option: People who are more likely to be hospitalized due to COVID are also more likely to be deficient in vitamin D. There doesn't have to be a causal relationship at all.

jb775 6y ago

I understand what you mean, but don't think your example really fits since an increase in vitamin D in either scenario would ultimately reduce the occurrences of patients showing low vitamin D levels. And this seems to be a fairly consistent finding across multiple studies that use different controls/stratification/etc. Or do you mean people may be becoming deficient in vitamin D as a result of Covid? If so, would be interesting to know their prior vitamin D levels.

JshWright 6y ago
I'm not entirely sure you're replying to the correct comment, but just in case... I mean the population of people who are more likely to be hospitalized due to COVID also happens to be the population of people that is more likely to be deficient in vit D, and neither of those things have to cause the other.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
rblatz 6y ago
An increase in Vitamin D levels may or may not impact COVID 19 hospitalization rates. Just like lowering ice cream sales won’t change the murder rate. Even though increased Ice cream sales is correlated with increase murder rate.
- asveikau 6y ago
  I know your point is that correlation does not mean causation (though maybe those are correlated?), however, that really makes it sound like guys like Ben & Jerry have blood on their hands.
  - beagle3 6y ago
    rblatz is referring to a well known correlation: more nursery happen in summer. More ice cream gets sold in summer. Therefore, ice cream sales are correlated with murders. This correlation is not random - it holds across geographic boundaries and time. But it is not causal - decreasing ice cream sales (By limiting supply, raising price, etc) will not reduce murders. Decreasing murders (By more police intervention, limiting arms sales) does not reDuce ice cream sales. Similarly, vitamin D may be The ice cream analog. COVID 19 may be the murder analog, and if that’s true, we don’t yet know what summer’s analog here - could be obesity, or genetic factors, or something else. We don’t know.
    - pmg101 6y ago
      typo - you put 'nursery' instead of 'murder'
      - beagle3 6y ago
        Thanks, too late to fix now. DYAC, was on phone and didn't notice.
- jmnicolas 6y ago
  > Even though increased Ice cream sales is correlated with increase murder rate. I thought you were kidding but no: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2013/07/warm-weather-homicide-rates-when-ice-cream-sales-rise-homicides-rise-coincidence.html https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2013/07/warm-weather-hom...

GoldenMonkey 6y ago

^this!

cjbprime 6y ago

I suppose there's even a fourth option: People who are more likely to be hospitalized are also more likely to be deficient in vitamin D. The control group seemed to be a healthy population sample, but hospitals are not a pool of healthy people. How about a hospital sample instead of a population sample?

nwah1 6y ago
Maybe Vitamin D reduces all-cause hospitalization
- andi999 6y ago
  Maybe beeing healthy and able to go outdoors reduces all-cause hospitalization (apart from accidents)
- ganafagol 6y ago
  Or maybe low vitamin D levels are a symptom of the same "root cause" that leads to higher risk for Covid-19 and just supplementing vitamin D does not do anything to lower the latter. Those vitamin D level statistics have been floating around for months. What's missing is a placebo-controlled study to see whether supplementation would make a difference. But that involves more than just clicking a bit of statistics.
  - scottlocklin 6y ago
    That study is absolutely not missing, and it says exactly what you'd expect it to[0]. It's even being tested as an active treatment[1]. In fact, that study was also done with Influenza[2] and other lung borne ailments as well. It pretty obviously works, has tremendous explanatory power in the observed patterns of disease, and the fact that no government has sanctioned its use or its mass production ... well, I guess modernity kind of sucks. Better to pimp useless expensive garbage pharma companies can turn a profit on. [0]https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04536298 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04536298 [1] https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04385940 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04385940 [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4463890/#:~:text=In%20those%20patients%20who%20do,in%2048%20to%2072%20hours https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4463890/#:~:tex....

stjohnswarts 6y ago

I doubt anyone is saying with 100% assurance this is the -cause- but that it would be worth investigating further. If they'll change FDA recommendations for the blowhard in chief, we should also consider lack of certain nutrients as possibly something to look into as well.

tremon 6y ago
I recall an article a few months ago that discussed the Vitamin-D link in more depth, and a plausible mechanism was already suggested: vitamin D regulates the immune system response. People with low vitamin D levels are more likely to experience severe cytokine storms. PDF from April 2020: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/10/2020.04.08.20058578.full.pdf?mod=article_inline https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/10/202... The impact of Vit D in enhancing immune response (including flu and previous coronaviruses) has widely been studied and firmly established. Vit D can also suppress cytokine storm, which may substantially increase the chances of avoiding a severe case of COVID-19

carlmr 6y ago

Yeah, that's very likely actually, since the biggest risk group, the elderly, are also one of the groups with the highest levels of vitamin D deficiency. In this study here 84% of the elderly had some amount of vitamin D deficiency (Figure 3). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6178567/#:~:text=Elderly%20men%20are%20more%20likely,%25%20and%2026%25%2C%20respectively https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6178567/#:~:tex.... I do take Vitamin D supplements since they're cheap and available, just in case there is something to it, but I wouldn't bet on it.

fogihujy 6y ago
I do the same. Getting enough sunlight is hard during wintertime. Vitamin D deficiency has been linked to compromised immune systems, depression, rickets and several other things. More research is needed within several of those areas, but I believe it to be safe to assume that supplementing with vitamin D is good for you if you're deficient. If not, well, it's not like it's going to hurt you unless you overdo it.
yiyus 6y ago
There must be very well controlled groups of elderly people who after some blood test have been taking supplements and checking their vitamine D levels. I wonder how the virus is affecting this group compared with the general population of the same age. If this group were doing well, I think it would be quite conclusive, since it would show that people under treatment (and therefore with some previous health problem) are doing better than supposedly healthy people with low vitamine D values.

spion 6y ago

The level of evidence isn't great yet, but its highly likely that Vitamin D can help modulate the immune system. There is a retrospective study showing a difference between patients that got Vitamin D and those that didn't (can't find the link, unfortunately), and there is a small Spanish trial of 75 people where 50 got Vitamin D and 25 did not; in the group that did, 1 person needed oxygen whereas in the other group 12 people needed oxygen and one died - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456194/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456194/