I think a better mental model is to realize markets are a Keynesian beauty contest [1]. You don't make money in a market by correctly observing the ground truth

I think a better mental model is to realize markets are a Keynesian beauty contest [1]. You don't make money in a market by correctly observing the ground truth, you do so by correctly predicting the behavior of other market participants. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest